Time will tell future of the smartwatch

Worldwide sales of digital wristbands of all kinds are in the tens of millions.

Asking about the state of the smartwatch market makes a big assumption - that there actually is a smartwatch market. This is a much bigger leap than you might think.

Considering how new it all is, is it any wonder consumer desires and behaviour are poorly understood? It's going to take a lot more than saying there's a smartwatch market to actually create one.

According to a new report by market researcher Creative Strategies, fewer than 2 million smartwatches have been sold as the category has begun gaining traction over the past few years. Creative Strategies defines a smartwatch narrowly, including only devices that most people would instantly recognise as a wristwatch. Worldwide sales of digital wristbands of all kinds are in the tens of millions.

But what tech companies are aiming for is much greater - some 1.2 billion wristwatches are sold every year. If even 10 per cent of those billions of watch buyers could be persuaded to buy a smartwatch, that would be tremendous growth.

Knowing which 2 million people bought smartwatches can get us closer to identifying how much demand might really exist.

To make smartwatches a long-term companion device and not simply a quick hit, manufacturers and developers are going to need to make them relevant and necessary for daily activities.

The first question asked about any smartwatch needs to be: "What human need is it actually solving?" said Dennis Miloseski, a vice-president for design at Samsung, at a panel on the smartphone market at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas.

There have been surprisingly few new smartwatch announcements at this year's CES, for which the coming Apple Watch is probably to blame. Apple is expected to sell millions of watches in the first year, resulting in billions of dollars of revenue.

This will eclipse the entire smartwatch market to date, and we can't fault other players - big and small - for letting the dust settle before making any more big plays.

- Bloomberg