But just a little more than a fortnight out from the November 5 election there is no clear leader in the United States presidential race.
The stakes are high. The rhetoric has reached new heights. It is difficult to sort the reality from bluster but three telling events reported in the US this week help to paint the picture.
What we do know.
1. Trump ‘trumps’ his own pledged tariff hikes
Trump will use tariffs as a weapon of an economic war he intends to win for America. The former President upended free-trade dogma in his first term as President from 2017-2021. That’s long been understood. But he is also a deal-maker and used tariffs as leverage to extract new trade deals from other countries during his term. Swingeing tariffs were applied against the United States’ prime economic competitor, China.
The Biden Administration kept much of this in place and also introduced other measures like the Inflation Reduction and Chips Acts to spur more industry in the US.
A World Trade Online report notes a former International Monetary Fund and White House economist warned the imposition of across-the-board tariffs would be like a “grenade” in the multilateral trading system.
Maurice Obstfeld said Trump’s sweeping tariff plans would undermine World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules and wreak economic havoc.
“A regime of universal tariffs would really be a grenade thrown into the heart of the system. And what would be even worse is Trump’s often-stated goals to use the tariffs as bargaining chips with individual countries to get trade concessions, which would be totally in violation of the most-favoured-nation principle of the WTO and would create a very fragmented landscape for countries and for businesses throughout the world.”
From the Wall Street Journal, a counter view that a new Trump administration may assume that “the global trading system of the late 20th century is not sustainable”. This from Oren Cass, founder of American Compass, a conservative think tank that is close to Trump advisers and backs Trump’s tariff plan. “The endgame here isn’t some kind of negotiation where we all get back to 1995,” when the WTO came into force. Rather, it’s a “fundamental rebalancing”.
Trump’s called for an across-the-board tariff of 10%, later suggested 10% to 20%, and at least once even said 50% to 200%.
The suspicion is higher tariffs would not just be used as leverage but would become a means to another end: to fund US tax cuts.
2. ‘Enemies of the State’ has nothing on this
When retired US Army general Mark Milley put bullet-proof glass and blast-proof curtains at his home it was a sign of just how polarised the US has become in the wake of the first Trump presidency.
Milley chaired the joint chiefs of staff under both Trump and subsequently Joe Biden and stood up to the former President during the January 6 rioting.
“He is a walking, talking advertisement of what he’s going to try to do,” Milley “warned former colleagues”, veteran Washington Post reporter Bob Woodward writes in his new book, War. “He’s saying it and it’s not just him, it’s the people around him.”
Woodward is reported as saying Milley fears he will be recalled to uniform then court-martialled if Trump wins the presidency.
“He is the most dangerous person ever. I had suspicions when I talked to you about his mental decline and so forth, but now I realise he’s a total fascist. He is now the most dangerous person to this country,” Milley told Woodward. “A fascist to the core.”
Woodward also cites former senior Trump adviser Steve Bannon, who has listed people he believes Trump should go after if he is elected to a second term. They include Milley, former FBI directors Andrew McCabe and James Comey, former Secretary of Defence Mark Esper and former Attorney General Bill Barr.
This is unparalleled in US politics.
It may be all Trumpian bluster. Or not.
Two incisive summations when it comes to actual war itself.
George Will, in an excellent article in the Washington Post this week, writes, “Beginning January 20, 2025, the next President will cope with today’s axis: China, Russia, Iran and North Korea. US participation in World War II actually began with aggressive, and hardly neutral, Navy patrolling of the North Atlantic shipping lanes on which Britain depended. And US participation in World War III began before this week’s decision to send to Israel an advanced missile defence system and about 100 troops to operate it.”
And from Australia’s Lowy Institute, “We all agree the world has changed since January 2021 when Trump was last in power, and the stakes are higher.
“The Russian threat has returned to Europe, the conflict in Gaza threatens to escalate into a wider Middle East war, China is inching closer to realising a post-American order in Asia, and it is making hay globally by claiming leadership of the disparate but increasingly influential Global South.
“Whether the United States continues to champion allies, values, and norms under a re-elected Donald Trump has never been more consequential for friends and foes alike.”
This has implications for the US, the world and us.
3. Assassination season: Is it over?
Nervous local sheriffs jumped quickly and arrested a man with firearms outside Trump’s rally several days ago in Coachella Valley. Authorities initially claimed they may have interrupted a third suspected assassination attempt.
It turns out that was not the case.
But there is justifiable jumpiness in the Trump camp that he may yet again become a target.
This is reflected in the report out this week from the independent review panel that has been investigating the attempted assassination of Trump at a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, on July 13. The panel believes the Secret Services need “fundamental reform”. Pointedly, it says that “another Butler can and will happen again” without major changes in how candidates are protected.
The review faulted the Secret Service for poor communications on July 13 and failing to secure the building where the gunman took his shots. It also found more systemic issues at the agency such as a failure to understand the unique risks facing Trump and a culture of doing “more with less”.
A foreword to the report notes that the US Secret Service aspires to be the best protective service of high-ranking government officials in the world. “This is a zero-fail mission, for any failure endangers not only the life of the protectee but also the fundamentals of our Government itself.
“Today, however, the Secret Service does not perform at the elite levels needed to discharge its critical mission. The Secret Service has become bureaucratic, complacent, and static even though risks have multiplied and technology has evolved.
“The work of the independent review panel uncovered not only numerous mistakes that led to the events of July 13 in Butler, Pennsylvania but also deeper, systemic issues that must be addressed with urgency. Thousands of men and women have dedicated their lives to the Secret Service, and we remain grateful to them for their bravery, selflessness and willingness to serve in a vital role. But the Secret Service as an agency requires fundamental reform to carry out its mission.”
