Nearly a fifth of New Zealand's farmers plan to use genetic-modification technology within the next decade, according to research published by Lincoln University.
The university's agribusiness and economics research unit said that 17 per cent of farmers it surveyed on environmental beliefs and farm practices intended to use the technology during the next 10 years.
Currently, 10 per cent of farmers are using organic farming methods. This is expected to increase to 37 per cent within 10 years, the survey found.
In the same period, the number of farmers using conventional farming with technology such as chemical fertilisers would fall from the current 73 per cent to 46 per cent.
The users of organic systems are typically horticulturists, who have some of the lowest gross farm incomes. The highest earners are the "conventional", pastoral farmers.
The Dairy Board is spending $150 million over five years on biotechnology research, including genetic engineering, but has said its most immediate interest is in the potential to improve grass strains and animal health.
The board has said that if it decides to produce organic milk in New Zealand, several hundred farmers in one area are likely to be encouraged to switch production methods so all the organic milk can go through the same processing plant.
The Lincoln study said that although only 1 per cent of the farmers surveyed were certified as organic producers, another 9 per cent had adopted many organic practices and saw themselves as organic rather than conventional. It would probably not be difficult to move them on to becoming registered as organic producers.
There is also not a big gap between the attitudes of many farmers and those of organic producers, as 37 per cent of farmers intend using organic methods in the next five years.
The survey found that farmers interested in converting to GM technology are more likely to be male and working in dairying.
They are also more likely to be interested in the way the GM technology can boost production, rather than how it can appeal to consumers.
They tend to be less concerned about their relationship with nature and to be on higher-income farms.
The Lincoln study suggested that some of the older farming beliefs - such as harnessing nature for the benefit of humans, or increasing production to feed the world - are less dominant than they used to be.
The survey results gave a strong indication of a broad change to basic farming values, but more research would be needed to document that change.
"The organic farmers have environmental values, matched by actual practices, which are consistent with the dominant ideas about what comprises sustainable production," the study said.
Farmers intending to use GM technology were those least influenced by consumer demand for environmentally friendly practices.
They appeared to hope that specifically engineered crops and stock could quickly shift them into sustainable production, and would continue intensifying their farming until GM products emerged to deal with environmental issues.
But the university research unit also warned that if markets for primary produce became more sensitive to farmers' methods, consumers would find GM-based production less desirable.
"This could be reflected in prices paid, or market access for such product."
- NZPA
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Survey finds big change in attitudes to gene technology
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