Surplus beats forecast

New Zealand's trade surplus for April was considerably bigger than economists had expected, leading to predictions of "robust" export growth in the months ahead.

Preliminary merchandise trade figures released by Statistics New Zealand yesterday point to a surplus of $391 million for the month, more than double market expectations of $165 million.

That represents a solid increase from the revised $99 million surplus for March, which included a $90 million aircraft import, and a considerable improvement on the deficit of $22 million for April 2000.

Imports during April were put at $2469 million, slightly down from the previous month's total.

The main feature of the April figures was reduced spending on machinery, equipment and crude oil but demand for consumption goods remained strong.

Statistics NZ's early estimate for exports during April is $2860 million, about the same as for March.

Darren Gibbs, senior economist with Deutsche Bank, said the value of exports for the three months to April was 16.5 per cent higher than a year earlier and pointed to annual growth in export volumes of 2 per cent.

"Given the expected recovery in trading partner growth later this year, and an exchange rate that remains stimulatory by any yardstick, we expect growth in export volumes to remain robust over the period ahead."