Spending and Census statistics are encouraging for retail property sector

The September Paymark data on electronic sales reported a national rise in spending of 5.3 per cent for the year, well up on the 1.8 per cent for the 12 months to 2012.

New data from a variety of sources, including retail spending figures and the 2013 Census, is providing valuable information of interest to retailers and retail property owners, says Chris Dibble, Auckland research manager at Colliers International.

Colliers' latest national retail supply data and BNZ online sales numbers show that the appetite for retail products and services is increasing - but how and where money is being spent is changing.

"New Zealanders are now more confident about the future, due to expected stability in their jobs, the potential for wage growth and house price rises," Dibble says. "These factors provide a great mix of conditions to boost spending which is encouraging for retailers and retail property investors."

The September Paymark data on electronic sales reported a national rise in spending of 5.3 per cent for the year, well up on the 1.8 per cent for the 12 months to 2012, Dibble says.

With the exception of the West Coast, all regions experienced an uplift in the number and value of sales in the past year, according to Paymark, which processes around three-quarters of all electronic transactions in New Zealand.

"Aside from having more money to spend, one of the most important components for a more prosperous retail sector is a rise in population," says Dibble. "The recent release of Census 2013 information means that we can now gauge this better than we have been able to in a long time."

He says the demand for population information has been so strong that Statistics NZ has released information ahead of schedule and brought forward release dates of additional information. "While we only have access to the usually resident population counts at this stage, which understate population estimates, the change between censuses still provides a helpful guide on demographic shifts and trends."

Initial Census 2013 figures show some interesting results. Auckland continues to be a population powerhouse, with 33.4 per cent of New Zealand's population residing in the Auckland region. Unsurprisingly, Auckland also has the largest share of New Zealand's retail property supply, which has increased over time along with the region's population.

The updates to population forecasts, expected to become available in late 2014 to early 2015, are likely to show further shifts towards Auckland over time, says Dibble.

The complexities of the retail market make firm conclusions dangerous.

An example is Hamilton City's population base which has increased only slightly over the past 12 years from 3.1 per cent to 3.7 per cent of New Zealand's population.

"What is interesting is that there has been a retail property supply explosion in Hamilton between the census years - predominantly as a result of the award-winning The Base shopping centre and the Te Awa hybrid mall, a retail mega-hub which captures spending from a wide and diverse geographic catchment.

"The data also concludes that the high New Zealand dollar, in comparison to historical rates, propels [the online retail] trend. If the dollar does depreciate, this could temper the pace of online retail sales growth, which is already slowing somewhat."