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Operators' outlook after the busy summer season is uncertain
The biggest worry for tourism businesses is what bookings will look like after the end of summer, a Business New Zealand survey shows.
The monthly performance of services index surveys a range of service industries including retail, hospitality and tourism but this month was the first time a significant number of tourism businesses responded to it.
The results revealed a mixed reaction. Fourteen businesses said their trading environment remained positive but eight said theirs was negative.
Tourism Industry Association chief executive Tim Cossar said the survey showed smaller businesses were slightly more upbeat than larger firms.
"The survey results suggest that the global economic situation and the recent slowdown in international visitor numbers are likely to impact larger firms, as they rely more on international visitors to keep their businesses ticking over.
"The smaller companies with a greater reliance on domestic trade seemed to be faring a little better," he said.
But the biggest concern was not the peak summer season but what would happen to businesses after that finished in March, Cossar said.
"Tourism businesses are heading into the busy summer holiday season and while trading is expected to be down on past years most businesses are more concerned about what bookings will look like after summer, from March next year onwards."
Malcolm Johns, chief executive of InterCity Group and a board member of Tourism New Zealand, said he expected it to be a long, cold winter for many tourism businesses.
He said booking lead times were getting shorter, making it harder for businesses to plan ahead, and there was a growing expectation from tourists that tomorrow would be cheaper than today.
"We just don't know what next summer will hold and business hates uncertainty," Johns said.
But Cossar said some recent positives would help the sector.
"Despite a general slowdown, there have been some recent positive developments with the exchange rate moving in favour of international visitors, a slight recovery in the sharemarkets and more political certainty following both the United States and New Zealand general elections."
Australia and the domestic market are expected to be the key to holding up the tourism industry.
Visitor arrivals for the year to last month were down 1 per cent, significantly less than the predictions of 1.2 per cent growth for the year made by the Ministry of Tourism in July.
The ministry, which met senior representatives of the tourism industry in Wellington recently, has said it will release revised tourism forecasts early in the new year.
Tourism contributes close to 10 per cent of the nation's gross domestic product and is thought to employ nearly one in 10 New Zealanders either directly or indirectly.
