KEY POINTS:
The value of electronic card transactions rose a seasonally adjusted 0.4 per cent last month from June, but the overall trend remains flat.
An Electronic Card Transactions survey by Statistics New Zealand showed rises in spending on durables, fuel retailing and consumables were offset by falls in the non-retail and hospitality industries.
The survey measures the value of transactions on all debit, credit and charge cards made with New Zealand-based merchants.
Statistics NZ said the trend for the total ECT series has flattened since March, with a monthly growth rate of 0.1 per cent for each of the past three months the slowest since the series started in October 2002.
Before March, the general monthly trend was for an increase of 0.5 to 1 per cent. Statistics NZ said the trend reflects not only changes in consumer spending and prices, but also shifts in payment methods.
About 84 million electronic transactions were recorded last month, worth $4.6 billion.
After adjusting for seasonal effects, retail card transactions were 0.8 per cent higher than in June. Core retail ECT, which excludes motor vehicle-related industries, rose 1.2 per cent following a 1.5 per cent drop in June. Both series have been variable since March, with alternating monthly decreases and increases.
The trend in the core ECT series has been flat since September. By contrast, the trend series for retail ECT has generally been stronger during the same period, mainly because of higher spending on fuel.
Deutsche Bank chief economist Darren Gibbs said widespread discounting probably supported a rebound in the durables and consumables sector.
"The ECT data has followed a saw-tooth pattern in recent months. We would not be surprised to see a weaker reading in August."
He expected retail volumes to decline further, with signs of a further substantial drop in spending on motor vehicles.
The tax cuts from October should help lift spending in the fourth quarter, he said, and the result pointed to a reduction next month in the Official Cash Rate.
