Liam Dann: NZ faces unwelcome new economic divide

Some businesses have been doing "extremely well" post-lockdown, while "others are still hurting and need as much support as possible", Xero's Craig Hudson says. Photo / 123RF

New Zealand faces a new economic divide as Covid-19 wreaks disproportionate damage across the country.

"The country will effectively split into two economies – the tourism-dependent regions and the rest," wrote ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner last week.

That stark prognosis was from Zollner's report on the latest ANZ Business Outlook survey.

For the record, it showed an improvement from June and another bounce up from post-lockdown lows.

There were some worrying signs that the burst of strong domestic activity that has kept the economy buoyant since lockdown may be starting to slow.

We'll have to wait and see on that.

ANZ Bank chief economist Sharon Zollner. Photo / Dean Purcell

But Zollner's deeper point is that the nature of this crisis means New Zealanders are having very different experiences depending on what industries they are in.

David Coombes, managing director of Flight Centre NZ, hit the nail on the head when he talked to the Herald about their latest round of redundancies.

"Most other Kiwis think things are back to normal. There's at least some income, you go to the footy, feed your family, see your mates but if you're in anything that depends on the borders being reopened it's a very different reality."

You have to feel for Coombes and those in the international travel sector.

They were in the middle of a boom - what sadly now looks like a golden age for international travel.

There is no obvious pivot for them, no exciting post-Covid opportunity.

They just need to survive, to keep their structure and business networks in place for the eventual re-opening of the world – which we all hope comes sooner rather than later.

There's a lot of us feeling like life's pretty normal again.

David Coombes, managing director of Flight Centre NZ. Photo / Peter Meecham

Apart from the endless stream of grim international news, we're working, socialising and carrying on from within the safety a New Zealand bubble.

It's reasonable to feel good about that but it is easy to take things for granted.

The risks to that bubble are well documented. Border security and quarantine issues dominate headlines.

New outbreaks in Australia and across the US have pushed the debate about reopening borders into the distance.

"That the border will remain closed for the rest of the year is one of the few certainties in our economic forecasts at the moment," Zollner says of the issue.

But the risk she raises of a new economic divide is worrying.

At a time when New Zealand is already grappling with divisions related to cultural change and housing inequality, the prospect of another divide isn't particularly heartening.

"The New Zealand economy is in a relative sweet spot," Zollner says.

That's down to the enthusiastic spend-up that Kiwis have been on since lockdown.

We've successfully given retailers, domestic tourism operators and the real estate sector a better-than-expected quarter.

But we shouldn't forget that the economic pain arising from the closed border and the weak global economy is yet to be fully felt, Zollner warns.

The delay is partly because an economy is "just a slow ship to turn", she says.

It's also down to the enormous amount of government money that been injected into the economy through the wage subsidy scheme and other support packages.

"Unfortunately, that blow is coming; it's inevitable," she writes. "That means a big hole in
economic activity, centred on tourism and the foreign education sector. The blow won't be felt evenly."

Politically that delay has been good news for Labour.

I suspect it's the relative strength of the economy - not political scandal and meltdown - that has them so far ahead of National in the polls.

Putting on a brave face after the latest poor result last week, National Party leader Judith Collins seemed to put her faith in the economy crashing before the election.

She told Newstalk ZB that voters would return to National as the economy turned to "custard" when the wage subsidy ended, on September 1.

That seems highly unlikely.

National Party leader Judith Collins. Photo / Mark Mitchell

Most economists see the worst of the downturn hitting New Zealand next year. And it is unlikely to feel like a crash.

It's more likely that the economy will splutter slowly to a low point. The issue then is how long we are stuck there.

The onus will then be on the government to drive economic reinvention and to efficiently manage borders so we can take advantage of any opportunities as they arise.

Meanwhile, there's actually a lot of optimism in some business sectors right now.

A Xero survey of small businesses last week showed that revenue for small businesses in June was back to the same levels as of June last year.

Many business operators are feeling justifiably pleased with themselves for surviving lockdown and for the big strategic changes they've made to adapt.

The crisis has left them energised and focused.

"This revenue recovery shows what's possible when New Zealanders spend locally," Xero's Craig Hudson says.

But, echoing Zollner's warning, he cautions that the figures were an average.

Although some businesses have been doing "extremely well" post-lockdown, "others are still hurting and need as much support as possible", he says.

With the election increasingly looking like a one-sided celebration of New Zealand's Covid success, we shouldn't forget the damage that's been done to many lives.

Empathy - the ability to understand what others are going through - is going to be vital to New Zealand's social cohesion in the next couple of years.