Emergency? Do the maths

Tim Lynskey, vice-president of business development. Picture / Fotopress

How would Auckland's emergency services cope if a tsunami or another natural disaster hit?

Playing out the scenario on Tim Lynskey's computer is probably the best way to tell.

"Siren" - the flagship product of technology company ODT - is a computer program that helps to simulate and co-ordinate the movements of the ambulances and fire trucks that roam the city.

The analytical software allows the user to view clearly areas where response times are poor and test various scenarios to gauge their ability (or inability) to respond on time.

If an incident occurs, Siren can tell the dispatcher the best way to deploy their vehicles to get there as quickly as possible.

The company said it was the only commercially proven simulation-based planning tool tailor-made for the emergency services.

The fact it is being used to plan ambulance services in big cities in North America, Australia and the UK goes some way to substantiate that claim.

ODT started out as a group of mathematicians who were putting their brains to work solving multimillion-dollar business problems.

Air New Zealand used ODT's pairing and rostering solutions to help it save $15 million annually in matching scheduled flights with available pilots and crew across the globe.

In 1998, an opportunity arose to help St John Ambulance determine the best placement of new ambulance bases across Auckland's rapidly sprawling metropolis.

Solving the problem led to the development of Siren and the programme has been the company's main focus ever since.

There are two main aspects to the programme.

* Its planning module allows for comprehensive "what if" analysis to help planners answer questions such as: what will happen if we close a specific station or hospital, what will be the impact on response times of our ageing/growing population, how many ambulances will be needed to match demand and still meet response-time targets in five years' time?

* The second module - Siren Real Time - enables the optimal deployment of roaming and static emergency vehicles in a live situation.

It computes the outcome of all possible vehicle moves at once and recommends the best deployments to the station managers to minimise "coverage holes" while keeping in mind likely call activity in the immediate future.

At the heart of the programme is sophisticated algorithms that are used to analyse a variety of scenarios in seconds.

For emergency services providers who are typically technology poor, it reduces what could be 150 hours of manual work to minutes.

Siren can also project out into the future to establish the most cost-effective way to meet response-time targets.

In the UK and the US in particular, emergency services face severe public scrutiny if these targets are not met.

UK ambulance services operate on a star-based system where poorly performing services are zero-star rated and better performers are ranked with a maximum of four stars.

Optimum positioning also leads to cost savings, as unnecessary vehicle movements generate extra wear-and-tear and fuel costs.

Siren can also help the services prove their funding needs to the government.

"Why would a government hand out money to an emergency service provider that can't demonstrate it needs it in a robust fashion?" asks Lynskey.

Some of the hypothetical arguments Siren can provide are how average response times would grow year-on-year if the number of ambulance were not increased.

The company's first sale of Siren was to Metropolitan Ambulance Service for Victoria, in Melbourne, in 2003. This was followed by sales to Perth and west Yorkshire in the UK last year.

At an ambulance trade show in Montreal in August last year, the Toronto Emergency Medical Service expressed interest in Siren's real-time deployment capability.

The team worked feverishly to further develop this aspect of the programme by Christmas and won the account in January.

A second customer in the UK is under contract and other sales to Australia are expected this year.

Lynskey joined ODT one year ago from US software company SAS to help develop a sales strategy for Siren.

"There was no one taking the product to market. They were caught up in the product's development," he said.

The company was on track to attract 10 new customers this year and was expecting rapid growth next year.

Sales since June have exceeded $1.4 million.

Ambulance services pay ODT an annual licence fee for Siren, and the complete package, tailor-made for their geographical setting, is worth $350,000.

This year, Lynskey will be doing a lot of travel to develop the US and UK markets where, he said, the potential was tremendous.

Siren hasn't yet been introduced to Europe, but their research is showing when they do it will be a large market.

Lynskey wants to establish a strong foothold in the US and UK first.

Police services are another potential market as they face similar problems of how to best position their roving vehicles.

ODT is due to graduate from the Ice House - the University of Auckland's business incubator - where they have been based for two years in May.

The company's time there has been invaluable.

"The guys came in with a very technical idea and the Ice House has assisted them with establishing and nurturing that idea through to growth phase and with marketing assistance and mentoring," said Lynskey.

Company profile

* Tim Lynskey is the vice-president of business development for Optimal Decision Technologies (ODT).
* The Ice House-based company makes software program Siren that is revolutionising the way ambulance services plan for emergencies.
* It's being used to co-ordinate the movements of ambulances in big cities in North America, Australia and the UK.
* Siren stands for simulation for improving response in emergency networks.
* ODT's founding directors are Jeff Meyer, Dr Andrew Mason, Dr Paul Day and Dr David Ryan.