Sheep numbers may cheer industry

By PHILIPPA STEVENSON agricultural editor

A slowing of the 15-year decline in sheep numbers is likely to hearten the meat industry.

The trend is revealed in the first comprehensive set of agricultural statistics gathered in years. The figures were issued yesterday by the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry and Statistics New Zealand.

The 1999 final agricultural production data had not been updated since 1996 when the annual statistics collection was halted.

Agriculture Minister Jim Sutton said the previous Government's decision to halt the work seemed crazy. The information was essential for Government decision-makers to know what was happening in the country's largest export earning sector.

Chief economist Brian Spiers, of the Meat and Wool Economic Service which gathers data principally on sheep and beef farms, said his organisation relied on many of the statistics gathered in the Government surveys.

"Our information is a small sample and it relies on Statistics NZ providing the population framework for us. Our information does not replace theirs. They both serve different purposes," he said.

The service had assumed certain trends in livestock numbers for its forecasting, but Mr Spiers said without the supporting data it had been like ancient sailing methods. "You hoped you made landfall in the right place."

He said the latest figures showed the rate of decline in sheep numbers had been much lower in recent years than between 1984 and 1996.

"It must be quite good news for the meat industry to see they are not really faced with dramatic changes in future availability of lamb," he said.

"That does point to a stabilisation of the agricultural sector."

Mr Spiers hoped a regular gathering of agricultural statistics would continue.

In 1980, there were 22 sheep for every person in New Zealand. Now it is 12 sheep.

At June 30, 1999, the national sheep flock was estimated at 45.7 million, 3.6 per cent lower than in June 1996. Sheep numbers in the North Island fell by 5 per cent, and in the South Island by 2.5 per cent.

Conversion of sheep farms to dairy, increased forestry plantings and the two-year drought have contributed to the decline. Canterbury has the most sheep, with more than 9.2 million, just over 20 per cent of the national flock.

Dairy cattle have increased by 3.6 per cent in the past three years and now number 4.3 million. Most of the increase occurred in the South Island, particularly Southland, Canterbury and Otago. The biggest concentration is still in the Waikato with 1.5 million.

Beef cattle have declined 4.3 per cent since 1996 to 4.6 million, also due to the growth in dairying and forestry and, in some regions, because of drought. Four years of poor beef prices are also likely to have played a role.

Deer numbers have risen 40.7 per cent since 1996 to 1.7 million, but Mr Spiers said some of the increase might be attributable to previous under-estimates.

In 10 years, pig numbers have dropped by about 100,000 to 368,887 while goats have plummeted from 1.2 million in 1989 to only 186,390 last year.