The polls put Labour and National at a statistical tie. The last time National defeated a Labour Government was in 2008. By April 2008, National had a 10 per cent lead. John Key was on 44.9 per cent as preferred Prime Minister. Today, Christopher Luxon polling atjust 24 per cent is hurting National’s electoral prospects.
Luxon has a good CV. He looks prime ministerial. For a politician, he is very principled. Luxon has restored discipline to the National caucus. But his challenge is that he has been in politics just two years. MPs who come from business usually take six years to adjust to the world of politics. He is up against Chris Hipkins, who has been in politics all his adult life.
Voters still do not know Christopher Luxon. He says he takes his actions as “a father of a 21-year-old daughter”, but he comes across like a Victorian father figure, not appealing to the women’s vote National must win.
I held an unscientific poll of two of my leftie daughters. They find Luxon to be inauthentic. One said he reminds her of the suits from head office who never walk their talk.
In politics, a way to show you are authentic is by saying what you are for and, just as important, what you are against. Luxon recently had such an opportunity. A voter at a public meeting asked him: “Are you going to be able to win the election by working with the Māori Party?”
“The short answer is no,” replied Luxon. “This is a party that now believes in two separate systems and that is something we cannot support.” He also said any coalition with the Greens was highly unlikely because that party is socialist.
This strong statement of what he is against lasted just a few hours. His office issued a clarification that National had not ruled out a deal with Te Pāti Māori or the Greens.
Voters still do not know Christopher Luxon, says Richard Prebble. Photo / Alex Burton.
National Party leaders used to claim that National is the party that represents all New Zealanders regardless of class, race, religion or where they were born.
Te Pāti Māori is a party that does judge people by their race. Take one policy on their website: “Commit all Māori to the Māori electoral roll”. Compulsory enrolment by race is apartheid. The world condemned apartheid as wrong in South Africa. It is equally wrong in New Zealand.
After saying National does not support separate systems based on race, Luxon refuses to rule out a deal with separatists for power.
Luxon’s realpolitik advisers who counsel forming any coalition to win office are snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. A Labour Party dependent on the Greens and Te Pāti Māori should be unelectable.
A Labour Government reliant on the Greens and Te Pāti Māori would be very radical. Such a government would not just be socialist, but would implement undemocratic co-government. A Labour/Green/Te Pāti Māori coalition is only possible because Luxon will not rule out doing a coalition with either the socialist Greens or the separatist Te Pāti Māori.
No wonder Luxon is not the preferred Prime Minister of a third of all National voters.
The same realpolitik advisers are also eroding National’s other great electoral advantage, economic management. These advisers believe that if Christopher Luxon spells out how dire the economy is, it will frighten away voters. National is saying all that is needed is to cut out some waste, tweak tax rates, a bit more immigration, a bit less regulation and all will be well. If that is all that is wrong with the economy, why not re-elect Labour?
Luxon should be telling it like it is, even though it is scary. New Zealand is becoming a third-world country. Australia has not changed its citizenship rules to help New Zealanders, but to strip this country of our best.
In just five years, net core Crown debt to GDP has doubled to 40 per cent, food prices have increased at the fastest pace in 30 years, the trade deficit is at 9 per cent of GDP, benefit numbers are up by 50,000 and our health and education systems are in dire trouble. When we count our unfunded liabilities in superannuation and health, the country is bankrupt.
Should National win, Luxon has not prepared the electorate for the policies that are needed to make New Zealand a country where our best no longer feel they have a better future in Australia.
Luxon said in his maiden speech: “New Zealand’s economic engine needs major modifications and serious upgrading.” He would be more authentic if he were to campaign with a programme to make these needed major upgrades.
Until Luxon rejects the counsel of his realpolitik advisers and goes with his instincts, the two Christophers will be Labour’s greatest electoral assets.
- Richard Prebble is a former leader of the Act Party and a former member of the Labour Party
