The alarming lapses in ministerial judgment have an explanation: stress. People under stress often make poor decisions.
Commentators read the polls to determine who will be the government. MPs, however, read the polls to determine whether they will have a job.
In September last year, National/Act first went aheadin the polls. Since that date, a third of Labour’s MPs have realised they are going to be ejected.
It’s the curse of a big majority. The bigger the win, the bigger the loss. This election day, at least 22 Labour MPs’ parliamentary careers will end.
Last election, Labour received 50 per cent of the vote. That translated into 65 MPs — now 64 with the loss of Hamilton West. Averaging the Curia poll, Labour is on 35 per cent.
A 15 percentage point fall will go through the constituencies like a mighty axe.
Labour is going to lose Northland, Whangārei, Maungakiekie, Tukituki, Upper Harbour, Northcote, New Plymouth, Hamilton East, Ōtaki, Ilam, Hutt South and Rangitata.
National must be favoured to win back the normally solid National seats of East Coast and Nelson. National can also win Ōhāriu and Auckland Central.
Among the MPs facing defeat are ministers Kiri Allan and Willow-Jean Prime. New MPs Emily Henderson in Whangārei, Sarah Pallett in Ilam, Northcote’s Shanan Halbert, Vanushi Walters in Upper Harbour and Priyanca Radhakrishnan in Maungakiekie will lose.
Pollster David Farrar, whose research I am citing, says that on current polling, Labour’s list entitlement will fall by six. Grant Robertson and the Speaker have already jumped to the list, meaning some existing back-benchers will not get a safe list ranking.
This list of likely losers is conservative. The best predictor of the election result is the right way/wrong way poll. For 12 months, 50 per cent of voters have said the country is headed in the wrong direction.
What pollsters cannot poll for is turnout. The Hamilton West by-election is evidence that in the crucial South Auckland booths, Labour voters will stay home.
What will happen in the Labour Māori constituencies?
Last election, against the red tide, Labour lost Waiariki to Te Pāti Māori.
Waka-jumper and former minister Meka Whaitiri believes Te Pāti Māori will be a winner. At this stage, that is unknown, and Whaitiri could be in for a shock. But Labour’s Māori caucus, not used to having to campaign, must be worried.
Meka Whaitiri has jumped ship from Labour. Photo / NZME
Being in a caucus when the polling is dire is very stressful. Cabinet meetings turn into therapy sessions. A possible explanation for Kiri Allan’s behaviour is the likelihood that she will lose her seat.
An indicator of what MPs think of their chances is the number of retirements. Six MPs, including three ministers, are retiring, with Stuart Nash possibly yet to confirm. Kris Faafoi, Trevor Mallard and our former Prime Minister have already departed.
None of the MPs sacked at the election will be asked to give lectures at Harvard on leadership. The Labour MPs know they will never get another job as good as their present one.
On their election pamphlets, Labour MPs say they are public servants, schoolteachers, lawyers and union organisers. The non-political public service does not want ex-MPs. The MPs have already fled from school teaching. Few ever practised law. No trade union secretary will employ an ambitious former MP.
In reality, most Labour MPs, like the Prime Minister, have worked all their adult lives in politics. In the private sector, there is not a lot of demand for professional politicians. If Labour loses, they will be competing for employment with dozens of apparatchiks expelled from the Beehive.
Many ex-MPs run for local government because politics is all they know. I know two ex-Labour MPs who became taxi drivers.
My advice to young people who are interested in politics is to “be a citizen politician, have an occupation you are happy to return to”.
Even the 30 or so Labour MPs who have safe seats or a high list place are stressed. MPs know that those closest to you on the political spectrum are your biggest enemies.
Labour MPs are not looking forward to a coalition with the Greens and Te Pāti Māori.
Paul Keating famously described greens as “opportunists and Trots”. Labour MPs loathe the Greens as the radical left masquerading as environmentalists. Labour’s Māori MPs, meanwhile, believe Te Pāti Māori MPs are reckless shock jocks, saying anything for a headline.
A Labour/Green/Te Pāti Māori coalition would mean the Deputy PM, Cabinet ministers, associate ministers, the assistant Speaker and committee chairs losing their jobs to accommodate MPs they despise.
Many Labour MPs would rather go into opposition than into a coalition with the Greens and Te Pāti Māori.
For every ministerial error of judgment that we know about, there will be three more we are yet to discover.
What is surprising is that there are not more Labour MPs taking mental health leave.
- Richard Prebble is a former leader of the Act Party and a former member of the Labour Party.
