Body of missing student recovered from caves, what’s in store weather-wise after another day of heavy rain and why the government could change the law for the Rugby World Cup in the latest New Zealand Herald headlines. Video / NZ Herald
OPINION
Jacinda Ardern, not Labour, won the last election. It is the usually-National voters who voted for Ardern then, who will decide the coming election.
The male Ardern voters have already decided. They are voting National or Act. The female Ardern voters are leaning Labour.
Polling indicates that women likeChris Hipkins’ “I am just a boy from the Hutt”, and dislike Christopher Luxon’s “I am from head office”.
Events in the third parties may decide how the Ardern women vote.
The Green Party set up what I would describe as a kangaroo court to try a Māori female MP on the impossible-to-defend woke charge of bullying. Today, any criticism is regarded as bullying. Ardern voters will be concerned when they realise that these Green leaders, who cannot manage their own party, expect after the election to be in Chris Hipkins’ Cabinet managing the country.
The Ardern voters believe Te Pāti Māori is an irrelevant fringe. Events this week will force a reconsideration.
On present polling, and the way MMP works, the defection of a Labour constituency MP to Te Pāti Māori increases the chances of a Labour/Green/Te Pāti Māori coalition government. Not only will Meka Whaitiri win her seat, it is likely Te Pāti Māori will win at least four Māori seats. The Speaker and Peeni Henare want to move to the list for a reason. Te Pāti Māori will have more MPs than their party vote entitles them to, so creating an overhang. It will be an extra seat for the left.
As Labour’s MP numbers are determined by the party vote, the more constituencies Te Pāti Māori wins, the better Chris Hipkins’ chances of remaining PM.
Meka Whaitiri gave up being a Labour minister outside of Cabinet, confident that in five months she will be a Te Pāti Māori minister in Cabinet. If Ardern voters find the prospect of Green Cabinet ministers concerning, they will find the prospect of Te Pāti Māori Cabinet ministers at the heart of government alarming.
Act is concerned that Christopher Luxon is never going to appeal to the female Ardern voters. Photo / Alex Burton
The announcement by Act’s deputy leader Brooke van Velden that she will contest the Tāmaki electorate does not seem to make sense in MMP terms. The party already has the insurance of an electorate. If van Velden wins, it does not increase Act’s MPs. Act voters usually do not double-tick. The reduction in Tāmaki’s Act Party vote is likely to cost Act one or even two MPs.
The Act strategists know this. Act is concerned that Christopher Luxon is never going to appeal to the female Ardern voters.
Brooke van Velden does represent the style of politics women want. David Seymour appointed van Velden to guide his End of Life Choice Bill through Parliament. Her respectful attitude to those holding opposite views won her a hearing. She is such a persuasive advocate, that National MPs opposing the bill took to hissing when passing her in the parliamentary corridors.
The National MP for Tāmaki, Simon O’Connor, practises the type of politics that women voters do not want. Three candidates challenged his re-selection. National Party activists in Tāmaki approached van Velden to stand. They have joined her campaign team.
Simon O’Connor, when opposing an abortion bill, said in Latin; “Mihi vindicta: ego retribuam, dicit Dominus” (“vengeance is mine; I will repay, saith the Lord”). On Facebook, he welcomed the US Supreme Court overturning a woman’s right to choose. O’Connor led the fight against the End of Life Choice Bill. His constituents, in contrast, voted more than two to one in favour in the referendum.
While National has held Tāmaki since 1960, at the last election Labour won the party vote. Most Tāmaki voters are Ardern voters who the centre-right must win.
Van Velden has cross-party appeal. She admits she was a Green Party voter until she studied economics and international trade at university.
O’Connor does not represent the Tāmaki electorate’s values. Van Velden does. When Tāmaki voters realise they can vote for the electorate MP they want without it affecting the outcome of the election, a van Velden win is possible.
Act has a bigger goal. The party sees van Velden as the future leader. The party hopes a media focus on Tāmaki and on van Velden will enable Act to appeal to female Ardern voters.
The strategy will be a success even if van Velden does not win the electorate — if her standing in Tāmaki results in more female Ardern voters deciding to party vote Act.
Christopher Luxon needs to be very careful. While he has repeatedly assured voters that he will not impose his conservative social views on others, his vigorous support for zealots like O’Connor worries women voters.
For Christopher Luxon to be Prime Minister, he needs Brooke van Velden’s campaign to win the women’s vote to be a success.
- Richard Prebble is a former leader of the Act Party and a former member of the Labour Party.
