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Home / Business / Personal Finance

Walking on investment wild side in Africa

By Tim Sharp
28 Feb, 2007 04:00 PM3 mins to read

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An outdoor dentist in Marrakesh. Photo / Reuters

An outdoor dentist in Marrakesh. Photo / Reuters

KEY POINTS:

From vast deserts, to sub-Saharan savannah teeming with wildlife, to market traders in Marrakesh, perceptions of Africa are shaped by any number of images. Sadly, though, the most startling and enduring are of war or famine.

Corrupt governments, economic collapse, natural disasters and a hangover from the colonial
era mean Africa is firmly entrenched as the world's poorest continent. Figures published by the United Nations in 2003 showed that the 25 most underdeveloped countries were all African.

The fortunes of the continent have been thrown into sharp relief by Asia's drive out of the financial wilderness.

As a disparate band of countries - from democratic and increasingly prosperous South Africa to the repressive economic basket-case of Zimbabwe - struggle to stand on their own feet, Africa has become, for too many in the West, a home simply for charitable donations.

Few of us would think of Africa as a good place to invest, but for those prepared to take a risk with a small part of their portfolio, there are signs the continent's fortunes are changing.

The latest figures from the World Bank show 16 African countries have managed to sustain annual growth rates of more than 4.5 per cent since the mid-1990s.

The World Bank also reports that inflation and government deficits are falling. Together, these translate into the potential for a stable home for your cash.

Jonathan Asante, a specialist in under-developed markets at British fund manager First State, argues that there is now a consensus in Africa about how to build a successful economy based on free markets and the rule of law.

He believes once this structure is implemented properly, African nations could generate tremendous and rapid growth.

Even if a country is run half as well as it could be, the potential growth in asset prices, the economy and people's wealth is huge. He sees Africa as the "last emerging market".

Other signs suggest the continent is broadening its appeal to overseas investors, with an emerging African middle class holding a lot of promise for consumer industries. In some countries, the expected growth in mobile phones is huge.

Asante says Ghana, run by a democratic and reformist Government, has a great deal of potential, as does oil-rich Nigeria.

"The beneficiaries of an expanding middle class could be companies such as the Standard Bank of South Africa or shopping chains such as ShopRite and Woolworths."

Despite these promising indicators, there are plenty of caveats for investors. One is that a lot of Africa's wealth stems from its great stocks of minerals and precious metals, as well as oil and coal.

In the past two years, prices for commodities including copper, gas, gold and oil have been at vertiginous levels and many analysts worry that they could plummet.

That, however, hasn't stopped Jamie Allsopp, who runs the New Star Hidden Value fund. Although this is focused on Britain, he has 7 per cent of his portfolio invested in African mining firms - attracted by mineral deposits including copper in the Congo and gold in South Africa and Botswana.

"Many of the companies, such as Ridge Mining and Central African Mining, list their shares in the UK," he says. "I want to be exposed to African growth as it's one of the most interesting parts of the market at the moment."

Other big African-based firms with a London listing include drinks giant SABMiller and fund manager Old Mutual.

- INDEPENDENT

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