Belief in a Auckland housing market crash is a bit like belief in the existence of the Loch Ness Monster.
Most Auckland houses are still selling above their CVs, research from OneRoof.co.nz shows.
OneRoof.co.nz and its data partner Valocity identified 71 suburbs in the city where on average residential dwellings sold above their 2017 CV and a further 42 suburbs where they sold at CV.
Omaha, Piha, Herne Bay and Northcote Point performed the best, recording average house sale prices 8-12 per cent above CV.
"There is much discussion within the market about value of CVs, but they are still used by most Kiwis in their property decisions," OneRoof.co.nz editor Owen Vaughan said.
"The fact that houses in many Auckland suburbs are selling at or above CV, despite recent drops in sale volumes and properties taking longer to sell, shows that we aren't in a buyer's market yet."
OneRoof.co.nz and Valocity looked at the sale price to CV ratio in 162 Auckland suburbs where there were 20 or more sales in the year to March. A ratio of 1 meant that on average, properties in the suburb sold at CV. Below 1 meant properties were selling below CV and above meant they were selling for more than CV.
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The research also showed certain property types were more resilient to changes in the market than others, with newer build apartments showing particular strength.
Of the 12 Auckland suburbs where there were 20 or more apartment sales in the year to March, just one, Glen Eden, saw average sales well below CV – the result of a trouble-plagued apartment complex within the suburb.
Another three saw dips of 2-3 per cent below CV but the rest, where new apartment developments have come on stream, performed at or better than CV.
"The findings are generally positive for homeowners in Auckland but there were signs of a buyer's market at play in a dozen suburbs, where sale prices for residential dwellings were more than 3 per cent below CV," Vaughan said.
"Houses in Mission Bay saw the biggest drops below CV, at 7 per cent, with the average house sale prices in Kingsland, Whenuapai and Hillsborough also coming below their 2017 valuation."
Barfoot & Thompson regional manager Rod Robinson said sales activity in Auckland is now focused on properties under $1 million.
"That proportion is likely to remain high as more affluent owners are often willing to wait and see if the prices will rise," he said.
"Buyers across all price brackets will have their chance of a good deal. An important point is both buyers and vendors must meet the market."
He sees opportunities for buyers to do better in newer or outlying areas where there is a lot of new building activity.
"The pendulum has moved a little bit, but it's not a lolly scramble of things for free. Vendors can move a little bit if buyers come in without conditions, as 'clean' as possible."
The pocket to be in is around Remuera, where Ray White's agent Steen Neilsen said there's always "organic traffic" in and out because of its zoning for Auckland Grammar and Epsom Girls Grammar.
He's still seeing up to 50 buyer groups through open homes (in the recession it was more like ten, he says) and last month had between two and five bidders at five auctions. All sold between $1.8m and $3.6m.
Buyers who spot limitations on a house will make excuses to either move on or negotiate, he said, but those who connect with a property emotionally (not just on square metreage or number of bedrooms) will pay more, as they're not just bargain-hunting.
OneRoof.co.nz and Valocity research also showed Christchurch family homes, as well as flats and apartments, were all selling at valuation or a hair above.
In Tauranga, average prices are 1-2 per cent off CV, while in Wellington they are 1 per cent above. Dunedin sales for flats and houses are a very comfortable 3 per cent above.
