The company is now forecasting operating earnings of $420m to $455m for the year through March 2019, down from previous guidance of $450m to $485m in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and changes in financial instruments.
In the latest financial year, which ended March 31 2018, Z's net profit rose 16 per cent to $205m on the same basis as the firm benefited from strong jet fuel and diesel demand and ongoing synergy gains from its acquisition.
"Z's margins have been in the news for a while now, and it's maybe an opportune time if they want to head off regulatory action," Davies said.
"The market is not throwing its toys too much. The stock is slightly down this year, it has been pretty stagnant on political threats to margins and this has made them a bit more cautious."
The stock is down 2.2 per cent this year as the government looks more closely at pricing strategy in the fuel sector, with the Commerce Commission set to gain market studies powers by the end of 2018 and the industry top of the list for such an investigation.
Ryman Healthcare dropped 2 per cent to $12.05, NZX fell 1.8 per cent to $1.10, and Gentrack Group declined 1.3 per cent to $6.88.
Chorus was the best performer, rising 1.7 per cent to $4.32. Port of Tauranga gained 1.4 per cent to $5.07 and Kathmandu Holdings advanced 1.3 per cent to $3.11.
Outside the benchmark index, Pyne Gould Corp was unchanged at 30 cents. Its Torchlight Fund has 30 months to make a fixed redemption payment of A$25.5m ($27.7m) after the firm announced a deal with unhappy investors who pursued the distressed asset investor through the Cayman Islands courts.