NZ economy is 'not rolling over': ANZ sees OCR peak of 4.75%

ANZ has changed its official interest rate outlook after data out yesterday showed GDP grew by a higher-than-expected 1.7 per cent in the June quarter. Photo / NZME

ANZ has made big changes to its interest rate outlook, saying the Reserve Bank's official cash rate (OCR) may need to hit 4.75 per cent to cool an economy that refuses to "roll over".

The bank - the biggest in the New Zealand market - has added 25 basis point hikes to its profile in February, April and May of next year.

The change of heart follows data out yesterday that showed GDP grew by a higher-than-expected 1.7 per cent in the June quarter.

"The economy is not rolling over, with the tight labour market and strong wage growth partially offsetting the impact of higher interest rates," the bank's economists said in a commentary.

The low value of the New Zealand dollar - currently about US60c - was making a meaningful offset to current monetary conditions, ANZ said.

Yet the bank said it was not bullish on the growth outlook.

"The Reserve Bank needs to see slower growth, and it'll get it.

"But we think it'll take a higher OCR to do the job.

"Risks are firmly tilted towards inflation and inflation expectations not falling as far nor as fast as is required to get real interest rates to a sustainably contractionary level, meaning more work for the OCR to do," ANZ said.

ANZ's economists said they were making a big change to their forecast today at the risk of a "flip-flop".

"So be it; it's what's needed to balance the risks around our central view."

The OCR currently sits at 3 per cent.

ASB this week said it now expects a further 25bp hike in early 2023 on top of the 100bps of hikes by the end of this year, taking the OCR to 4.25 per cent.

The Reserve Bank's forecasts - issued in August - have the rate hitting a peak of 4.1 per cent by June next year.