The number of New Zealand citizens leaving the country long-term continues to set new records, Stats NZ said today.
New data for the year to September shows a net migration loss of 54,700 New Zealand citizens in the September 2024 year.
This record net loss of New Zealand citizens was driven by a record 79,700 migrant departures, which more than offset the arrival home of 24,900 Kiwis.
The figure surpasses the revised figure of 54,378 in the year to August.
Based on the latest estimates available, just over half of these migrant departures of New Zealand citizens went to Australia, Stats NZ said.
Meanwhile, total net migration dropped to 44,900 in the September 2024 year.
“Annual net migration gains have continued falling from the provisional peak of 136,300 in the October 2023 year,” international migration statistics manager Sarah Drake said.
”The fall in net migration reflects that arrivals are down and departures are up.”
There were 177,900 migrant arrivals in the September 2024 year, which is still high by historical standards.
But this is compared with a record of 235,500 migrant arrivals in October 2023.
ASB senior economist Mark Smith said the net migration gain was now at its lowest level since January 2023.
“Annual arrivals continue to cool with annual departures hitting record highs,” he said.
“We expect annual net migration inflows into NZ to approach 30,000 persons by year-end. There is still the risk that net inflows continue to decline and net outflows become more of the norm for 2025.”
There were a record 133,000 migrant departures in the September 2024 year, compared with 99,300 migrant departures in the October 2023 year.
The monthly net migration gain for September was 4,000, which compared with a net gain of 11,300 in September 2023.
Westpac senior economist Michael Gordon said the monthly numbers suggested there had been some stabilisation around the outflows.
“We’ve been forecasting net migration to slow to zero over the 2025 calendar year (which would likely come with some negative monthly balances over that period),” he said.
“The apparent stabilisation of net flows over recent months makes it less likely that we’ll get all the way to zero next year. That in turn means some modest upside risk to our forecasts for both actual and potential growth in the economy.”
The latest figures for departures to Australia are for the year to March 2024.
They show there was a net migration loss of 30,000 people to Australia in the year ended March 2024.
This was made up of 17,000 migrant arrivals from Australia to New Zealand and 46,900 migrant departures from New Zealand to Australia, Stats NZ said.
Traditionally, there has been a net migration loss from New Zealand to Australia. This averaged about 30,000 a year from 2004 to 2013, and 3,000 a year from 2014 to 2019.
The provisional net migration loss to Australia in the year ended March 2024 was made up of a net loss of 28,600 New Zealand citizens, and a net loss of 1,400 non-New Zealand citizens.
This compares with a net migration loss to Australia of 18,700 in the year ended March 2023, made up of a net loss of 18,900 New Zealand citizens and a net gain of 200 non-New Zealand citizens.
In the March 2024 year, 54% of New Zealand citizen migrant departures were to Australia, Stats NZ said.
Monthly immigration figures are provisional and typically subject to revision.
Liam Dann is business editor-at-large for the New Zealand Herald. He is a senior writer and columnist, and also presents and produces videos and podcasts. He joined the Herald in 2003.
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