If that eventuates, it would be back-to-back 50bps cuts after a similar move in October. The OCR has been falling since August when it was first cut from 5.5%.
ASB economists say the case for another sizeable cut remains almost as strong as it was in October. They describe it as the “least-regrets” path at present.
“With inflation back around the target mid-point and spare capacity starting to build up, the amount of monetary restraint needs to be quickly pared back. A 50bp cut would achieve that,” they say.
Much of the attention on tomorrow’s announcement is likely to be focused on the Reserve Bank’s new forecasts for the economy and where it is projecting the OCR to land next year.
At Capital Economics, senior economist Abhijit Surya argues that with inflation back at target, the labour market loosening rapidly and activity in the doldrums, “there continues to be a compelling case for the Bank to loosen policy aggressively”.