Mike Taylor: Playing the Trump card

US President Donald Trump. Photo / AP

COMMENT:

From when he was elected, even before, every investor knew managing your portfolio when the President was Donald Trump was going to be a challenge.

He was and is an enigma.

His election immediately shocked markets. Hillary Clinton was ahead in the polls and expected to continue the status quo. Trump, however, like Brexit, was not predicted.

So markets around the world fell sharply initially on November 8, 2016, because he was an unknown quantity and markets hate uncertainty.

This didn't last long. Investors cheered another Republican back into the White House and word spread of a likely "market-friendly" economic policy.

This included massive infrastructure spending, not just walls, tax breaks for small business and big tech companies.

In Trump's first 100 days in office the SP500 rallied 5 per cent.

Despite the initial market fears, 2017 also turned out a bumper year for investors and one of the most benign.

As Time magazine said, "the bull market in everything". Volatility was low, inflation was under control, and Trump announced a massive tax package for 2018 which sent global equities on a tear.

The MSCI world index was up 20 per cent and the SP500 was up 19 per cent that calendar year.

As we rolled into 2018, it seemed the man everyone feared was actually managing the domestic economy pretty well.

US consumer confidence was at a 20-year high, unemployment at an all-time low of 4 per cent and GDP growth was 4.2 per cent by the second quarter, making the US one of the fastest-growing economies.

Enter the dragon. Early in 2018 Trump took aim at China, the European Union, Mexico and Japan, which he said were taking advantage of America because they all had trade surpluses with the country.

"I don't like it, and I haven't liked it for many years," Trump said. The first round of tariffs (25 per cent on steel and 10 per cent on aluminium) were initially directed at all US trade partners in March 2018.

Canada, Mexico, Australia, Argentina, South Korea, Brazil and the EU were initially exempted (Australia, Argentina and Brazil permanently). Countries such as Japan, Taiwan, Russia, China and Vietnam were hit with relatively small tariffs, amounting to US$17.9 billion.

On June 1, exemptions for the steel and aluminium tariffs ended for the EU, Canada and Mexico.

In late May Trump turned up the heat announcing a 25 per cent tariff on US$50b of goods imported into the US from China. The first phase of these tariffs — US$34b worth — went into effect on July 6, 2018.

Four days later, Trump doubled down announcing further tariffs on US$200b more of Chinese goods, which came into effect on September 24. And the rhetoric continues.

Of course, the EU, Canada and certainly China have not sat still. Each country has confirmed retaliatory tariffs all through this period.

As a result of the escalating trade wars, with a few other factors thrown in the mix like a strong US dollar and higher borrowing costs, emerging markets and China have been slammed this year.

MSCI EM is down nearly 13 per cent in the 12 months to 16 October. The Shanghai Composite Index is down 24 per cent over the same period (and nearly 28 per cent in US dollars). Both in bear markets.

The Chinese economy and parts of the global economy are feeling the pain.

The associated uncertainty must be having an effect on the real economy, but it's too early to quantify what this is, although there is some evidence of a slow-down in China.

For example, new car sales in China were down nearly 12 per cent year-on-year in September 2018.

If anything, as investors we should have learned Trump is very pro-American business. He wants to make America great again, right?

Tax cuts, better trade deals, pressure on the Fed to keep rates down. All those are ultimately good for the domestic economy and theoretically the US stock market.

So how do you play the Trump card? There are two ways.

Trump is throwing more fuel on the US economic fire with tax cuts and a large US$1 trillion US deficit in 2019. Ultimately this could cause the US to overheat which would be detrimental to almost all assets globally. In the short term, it seems likely to add to US market strength which has so dominated equity markets.

If you're watchful, you could benefit from that party until the music stops.

Second, a deal will eventually be done with China.

When that happens, it will likely lead to a huge relief rally. EM and Chinese equities are starting to look cheap, especially relative to other parts of the world.

If a deal can be done before too much permanent damage is done, then these regions look likely to outperform. On one level, the opportunity to buy value with a solid chance of a material recovery is attractive, and some are investing accordingly. But again, the critical question is when.

Those who have been into equity markets are seeing pretty ordinary results but are prepared to look through them for the eventual upswing. It takes a thick skin, though, when at least right now going in early looks, and feels, quite similar to being wrong.

Ultimately with markets, as with the 45th President, you never know what to expect.

So it's best to be vigilant and be prepared to respond to what the market and Trump deal you.

- Mike Taylor is founder and CEO of Pie Funds.