National Party leader Christopher Luxon. Photo / Mark Mitchell
OPINION
It’s not unusual at this stage of the Government’s life – Labour has just begun its sixth year in the driver’s seat – that National has a list of government policies it is promising to undo, should it win next time round.
To be fair, all Oppositions do it. They target measures that they deem unnecessary, daft, ideologically distasteful or an affront to their values. Sometimes it’s simply a case of reading the public mood around a particular measure and siding with the aggrieved.
Though they don’t always live up to their bombast, of course. Once in power, repeal sometimes becomes a tweak.
National has been suffering Repeal Syndrome for a while, so much so that it’s now a chronic condition. The list of Government measures, some completed and others a work in progress, that it is promising to halt or reverse is getting ludicrously long.
Three Waters, Auckland’s regional fuel tax, fair pay agreements, clean car discounts, farmgate emissions pricing, the new Māori Health Authority, the TVNZ-RNZ merger, the bright-line property rule – that’s not an exhaustive list, but you get the picture.
There’s an adage about the life cycle of Opposition that goes: oppose, propose, depose. First you express your disagreement with what the government is doing, then propose solutions, and lastly you tip the incumbent out of office.
National appears stuck in “oppose” gear. It’s unprecedented for a major opposition party to have such miserable policy offerings one year out from an election. Instead it seems hellbent on taking a wrecking ball to the current Government’s record.
Having had its ears bent by noisy sectional interests – think big business, property investors the crankier elements of the farm lobby – National’s response has been, don’t worry, we’ll get rid of this dangerous lefty nonsense. Just don’t ask what we’d do differently.
This descent into cynical partisanship sometimes gets downright reckless.
Take the 2018 ban on offshore oil and gas exploration. It’s another government policy over which National is beating the repeal drum.
The folly of National’s desire to try and kick-start offshore oil and gas exploration re-emerged as the COP 27 climate summit got under way in Egypt. As you’d expect, the bleak outlook for the planet quickly became a theme at COP 27. Despite the overwhelming evidence that fossil fuels are the key driver of global warming, the urgent cuts needed to halt climate breakdown are still not happening.
Yet at this time of heightened attention on the planet’s existential struggle, National’s energy spokesman gave a speech in the Waikato reaffirming that National, if in government, would resume issuing permits for oil explorers to drill in New Zealand waters.
Leave aside for a moment the likelihood that none of the oil majors might bother coming back. The timing of the speech was terrible, so too were the optics.
Even before the ban was announced four years ago, major oil companies like Anadarko and Chevron were exiting our waters having poured millions into seismic surveying and exploratory drilling. Further investment had become too risky. In each of 2016 and 2017, only one permit had been granted for offshore exploration. So some were asking, why poke the bear?
But the real potency of the offshore exploration ban was in its symbolism. A bold move in support of our climate change obligations was greeted with acclaim around the world. As Greenpeace said at the time, the country had got its green mojo back.
Studies have shown that New Zealand’s image as a clean, green land – something which the ban serves to reinforce – is potentially worth billions of dollars in export earnings. It seems inexplicable that we’d reverse the ban, and so compromise an export marketing advantage.
In the time since it took effect, the country has moved on. Renewable energy projects are proliferating. Taranaki, the country’s oil and gas hub, is embracing Just Transition partnerships. The expertise of the province’s energy sector is now turning to new technologies, notably green hydrogen and wind farms. Local mayors are talking up the potential for sustainable energy projects.
National argues that a return to permitting offshore oil and gas exploration would be about energy security and affordability. Given the long lead times for exploration projects and the waning interest in offshore acreage, repealing the ban would do nothing for either.
An important element of the ban announcement was giving an assurance that all existing exploration rights would be honoured, and it is important to note that the permits that enshrine them run into the 2030s. So the gas will be flowing for a while yet.
New Zealand’s electricity needs are increasingly being generated from renewable sources, but thermal generation, gas as well as coal, remains an important part of the generation mix when demand soars.
Gas production problems in recent years, particularly with the ageing Pohakura field, have spooked some energy watchers, prompting warnings that blackouts could become a regular occurrence. But it is the soaring prices globally for gas and coal and New Zealand’s limited thermal generation capacity that are the gnarlier issues, not our gas reserves per se.
While MBIE data published in July showed a 5 per cent drop in proven and probable gas reserves, the outlook in the big Maui and Mangahewa fields had actually improved. Their reserves were reported to have increased.
Furthermore, New Zealand sits equal ninth (out of 25 countries) on the latest World Energy Council “trilemma” rankings, which measure energy security, environmental performance and affordability.
So National’s case for wanting to repeal the offshore exploration ban begins to look flimsy on a number of fronts.
UN boss Antonio Guterres sounded a warning at COP 27 that the planet is fast approaching a tipping point that will make fossil fuel-driven climate chaos irreversible.
Goodness knows what he’d make of New Zealand, having begun a managed transition to a clean energy future, putting out the welcome sign again for deep-sea drillers.
- Mike Munro is a former chief of staff for Jacinda Ardern and was chief press secretary for Helen Clark.
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