Arrivals: Net migration gains continues to be strong.
Arrivals: Net migration gains continues to be strong.
The immigration boom showed a few signs of abating in January, although net gains remain historically high, according to new figures from Stats NZ released today.
New Zealand’s net migration has hit another fresh peak with a gain of 133,800 for the year to January. That’s up from an annual gain of 126,000 in the December 2023 year although shy of the new (revised) record of 141,400 for the November 2023 year.
But the 257,200 migrant arrivals and 123,300 migrant departures in the January 2024 year are, provisionally, the highest on record for an annual period, Stats NZ said.
The long-term average for January years (pre-Covid, 2002–2019) is 118,700 migrant arrivals and 91,700 migrant departures.
The figures are also provisional and subject to revision, something that has seen final numbers rise in recent months.
ASB senior economist Mark Smith said migration figures were strong but past the peak.
“Recent revisions have been substantial (particularly for the seasonally adjusted figures) and have made it difficult to detect turning points,” Smith said.
“January saw a net permanent and long-term (PLT) inflow of just 2,870 persons in seasonally-adjusted terms (+5,259 in unadjusted terms). It represents a cooling on earlier monthly figures and remains well below the seasonally adjusted monthly net inflows of +14,000-17,000 in March-June-2023.”
On a monthly basis, migrant arrivals continued to rise. Provisional estimates for January 2024 were 21,200 arrivals - up from 20,806 in December. But monthly net migration was down at 5300, as more Kiwis left. It compared with a net gain of 6827 in December.
For the departures, the January 2024 year provisionally saw two annual records for New Zealand citizens, Stats NZ said.
Some 74,200 Kiwis departed, exceeding the previous record of 72,400 in the February 2012 year, and there was a net migration loss of 46,900, exceeding the previous record before 2023, which was 44,400 in the February 2012 year.
The average annual net migration loss of New Zealand citizens was 27,100 in the January years 2002–2013, and 7500 in the January years 2014–2019.
For migrant arrivals in the January 2024 year, citizens of India were the largest group, with 51,000 arrivals. The next largest groups were citizens of the Philippines at 36,500, China at 28,800, New Zealand 27,300 and Fiji 11,300.
The net migration report for January provided another reminder that these figures are highly provisional in the near term and subject to change, said Westpac senior economist Michael Gordon.
Net inflows slowed sharply to under 3,000 in January, led by a surge in departures. However, the large outflows that were initially reported for the previous few months have now been largely revised away.
Michael Gordon, Westpac chief economist. Photo / Supplied
“The net inflow has been revised up by more than 13,000 people over the last year, setting a new peak of 141,400 last November,” he said.
“Most of that revision occurred in November and December, with further upward revisions for February and March last year – presumably international students who have now been correctly identified as long-term stayers.”
Setting aside the most recent months, the pace of net inflows did appear to have slowed from last year’s peak, though it remained high compared to history, he said.
Arrivals had remained high from month to month, but there was a steady uptrend in departures, particularly for New Zealanders.
There were two key issues to watch, he said.
“The first is the extent to which migrant inflows recede, or whether they remain historically high. It’s likely that we’re still seeing a catch-up on movements that were delayed during the Covid border closure. But at some point, the state of the economy will come to bear on people’s intentions to move to New Zealand.”
The second issue was how the accumulated inflow of migrants to date would affect the economy.
“The effects can be mixed – alleviating supply-side constraints in some areas, while adding to pressures in other areas such as the demands on the housing stock,” he said.
Liam Dann is business editor-at-large for the New Zealand Herald. He is a senior writer and columnist, and also presents and produces videos and podcasts. He joined the Herald in 2003.
