Migration numbers have a huge influence on the economic outlook. Photo / Alex Burton
Migration numbers have a huge influence on the economic outlook. Photo / Alex Burton
The rate of New Zealand’s monthly net migration gains continues to ease in the wake of the big surge at the start of the year.
Stats NZ data for the year to May 30 shows our annual net migration gain was up marginally - to 77,800.
The net monthly gainwas 4900, down from 5800 in April and well off the big gains, above 13,000, in February and March.
The May figures were still strong enough that, on an annual basis, the number of migrant arrivals in the May 2023 year was the second highest on record, slightly behind the 184,900 in the March 2020 year.
But the 103,300 migrant departures for the May 2023 year was also above the long-term average of 91,500 for May years (pre-Covid 2002–2019), Stats NZ said.
The provisional net migration gain of 77,800 in the year ended May 2023 was made up of a net loss of 30,800 New Zealand citizens, which was more than offset by a net gain of 108,600 non-New Zealand citizens.
This is consistent with migration patterns before the Covid-19 pandemic, where New Zealand usually had an annual net migration loss of New Zealand citizens and an annual net migration gain of non-New Zealand citizens, Stats NZ said.
There have now been 14 consecutive months of net migration gains of non-New Zealand citizens from April 2022, amounting to 111,200, Stats NZ said.
This net migration gain compares with a net migration loss of 32,300 non-New Zealand citizens in the 24 months from April 2020 to March 2022, when Covid-19-related border and travel restrictions were in place.
But there had been 19 consecutive months of net migration losses of New Zealand citizens to May 2023, amounting to 41,800. This follows 27 months of mainly net migration gains of New Zealand citizens, amounting to 32,100.
The May 2023 year provisionally included two annual records for non-New Zealand citizens:
154,700 migrant arrivals, eclipsing the 145,000 in the April 2023 year
a net migration gain of 108,600, eclipsing the 101,000 in the April 2023 year.
The current net gain compared with a net loss of 9300 non-New Zealand citizens in the May 2022 year.
It was also above recent May years (2015–2019), during which there were average net gains of 60,400 a year, Stats NZ said.
The net migration loss of 30,800 New Zealand citizens in the May 2023 year compared with a net migration loss of 10,300 in the May 2022 year.
The current net migration loss of New Zealand citizens was larger than the loss in the May years 2014–2019, which averaged 6200 a year; but similar to the loss in the May years 2005–2013, which averaged 30,700 a year, Stats NZ said.
Wetspac senior economist Michael Gordon said the data provided more evidence that the pace was moderating.
“On an annual basis New Zealand has seen a net inflow of nearly 78,000 people. That number is likely to head higher in the coming months, given the comparisons with a year ago (net flows were still negative up until June 2022),” he said.
Michael Gordon chief economist Westpac Bank
picture supplied
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“Our earlier forecast of a peak net inflow of 100,000 people is now looking like a stretch, though not hugely so – we’re currently on track for more like 85,000-90,000.”
“That would still be a record high by quite some margin. And in any case, picking the exact peak is a distinctly second-order issue; what’s far more important is understanding its impact on labour shortages, the housing market, and ultimately the required level of interest rates.”
Liam Dann is Business Editor at Large for the New Zealand Herald. He is a senior writer and columnist as well as presenting and producing videos and podcasts. He joined the Herald in 2003.
