The net inflow of migrants continued to dwindle in January, falling to 450, seasonally adjusted, the lowest since June last year.
It had been on a declining trend since last September, Statistics New Zealand said.
For the year ended January the net migration gain was 8700, less than half the
20-year average of 12,000 and down from 22,600 the year before.
Half of the decline in the past year was due to a rise in the net outflow of people to Australia.
"We would not be surprised to see the annual net inflow fall to zero over the coming year," Deutsche Bank chief economist Darren Gibbs said. "Given the upheaval in Christchurch ... and the relative strength of the Australian labour market and incomes, we think that a weakening trend is likely to be sustained over the next year or two."
ASB economist Jane Turner said the slowing pace of migration would help to alleviate future demand for housing.
"Under-building, combined with damaged and unusable housing from February's quake, will place a strain on New Zealand's housing supply over the next year. This will create inflation pressures down the track in the form of higher rents and construction costs.
"However, reduced net migration and slower population growth can help mitigate this."
The relative strength of the Australian job market would continue to attract New Zealanders, particularly Canterbury people who might now be displaced as a result of last month's devastating earthquake, she said.
"Over the next year, we expect the number of foreign students to decline as a result of the quake."
The number of visitors arriving in this country for a short-term stay rose 3 per cent in January from a year earlier, to 265,600 - a record for a January month.
Publishing the figures yesterday, Statistics NZ said the number of visitors from China rose by 5100 in January compared with a year earlier, with a rise of 1700 from Australia and 900 from Japan.
- Additional reporting NZPA
