OPINION
Jacinda Ardern so wanted her Government to win a third term that she was prepared to step down as Prime Minister to make it happen. One rough-and-ready poll suggests over 400,000 votes may be back in play. The left needs fewer than a quarter of them to retake the lead.
No one seriously believes that Ardern just had a think over the holidays and — like everyone else — decided she wanted to pack in her job on her first day back.
Labour’s masterful transition was carefully planned before Christmas by Ardern and her closest allies, Grant Robertson and Chris Hipkins, and flawlessly executed over the last week.
Robertson immediately ruling himself out underlines that he, Ardern and Hipkins had plenty of time to decide who was best placed to secure re-election.
Three who may have fancied themselves, Megan Woods, Michael Wood and Kiri Allan, had no time to organise.
The Māori caucus, whose de facto leader Willie Jackson announced it would meet on Saturday to decide who should be Prime Minister, was out-manoeuvred when Hipkins was the only nominee.
The Māori caucus secured Kelvin Davis remaining as deputy leader of the party rather than Hipkins’, Robertson’s and Ardern’s agreed choice, Carmel Sepuloni.
But that role was rendered irrelevant when Davis decided in 2020 he wasn’t up to being Acting Prime Minister and gave way for Robertson to become Deputy Prime Minister. As of this morning, Davis ranks fourth in Cabinet, behind Sepuloni, the new Deputy Prime Minister, and Robertson as Finance Minister.
Political strategists spend every December working out how to capture the initiative in January - especially in election year. None has ever succeeded like Labour over the last week.
National strategists seem dumbstruck. Christopher Luxon was more incoherent than usual trying to explain where he stands on co-governance, the Māori seats, subsidiarity and whether women politicians receive worse abuse than males, pleasing neither the liberal nor conservative wing of his party.
With the exception of confirming Robertson as Finance Minister, Hipkins refused to play the press gallery’s “rule it in or out” game in policy or personnel. This kept attention on his rhetorical shift away from identity politics and long-term vision to the immediate “bread-and-butter” economic issues that usually decide elections — and which polls overwhelmingly indicate will decide this one.
Hipkins didn’t rule out raising or cutting tax, increasing the superannuation age or introducing a capital gains tax. Unlike Ardern, whose aversion to admitting fault meant she would “reject the premise of the question”, Hipkins freely admits the Beehive’s fiscal policies affect inflation, that labour shortages are a problem and that the Covid response hurt, economically and psychologically.
That approach has retained him maximum flexibility to re-jig the Government’s policy programme based on the review Ardern and Robertson initiated in December.
If ministers have followed Robertson’s instruction in December to “murder their darlings”, the new leadership trio has a long list of expensive or unpopular projects for their big cull, expected to be announced through February.
The policies to be scrapped will drive which ministers are made to walk the plank next week.
The first four are self-selecting. Commerce Minister David Clark, Conservation Minister Poto Williams and Courts Minister Aupito William Sio have already announced their retirements from Parliament and should go from the executive immediately. Ardern is already off the ministerial list.
The Prime Minister will ask every other minister if they are in for four more years. If not, they’ll be invited to free up more space in Cabinet.
Some won’t mind. If your darling is to be murdered, best someone else is made to do the deed.
It’s been well-signalled that Broadcasting Minister Willie Jackson’s RNZ-TVNZ merger is doomed, which means the same for his time in the job.
If the co-governance clauses of the Water Services Entities Act are to be replaced with a simple duty to appoint directors in consultation with mana whenua, Local Government Minister Nanaia Mahuta won’t want to be the one to say so.
Likewise, if resource management reform is to be slowed or revisited, or IRD’s controversial “Piketty Project” dropped, Environment and Revenue Minister David Parker might prefer someone else issues the press statements.
It’s an open secret that Robertson will never fund Auckland light rail in its current form, so Wood might prefer to focus on his Workplace Relations & Safety portfolio — and perhaps Police, which has to be reallocated after Hipkins’ elevation.
Similarly, Hipkins has to find a new Education Minister and new Public Service Minister to replace himself. He also can’t afford to have Health Minister and former union boss Andrew Little — astutely dubbed ‘Angry Andy’ by former National strategist Steven Joyce — at war with nurses in election year.
After Davis’ eclipse by Sepuloni, and Jackson and Mahuta’s likely loss of current portfolios, the Māori caucus will require compensation with some heavyweight jobs. Jackson and Allan expect to both be on the front bench.
This all points to the boldest Cabinet reshuffle in decades.
Having out-foxed any Labour rivals, the Labour leadership now turns its attention to doing the same to National.
Beehive strategists say Labour understands it must compete on tax, offering something beyond the status quo. That puts both tax cuts and tax hikes on the agenda, including to position the election as “ordinary hard-working Kiwi families trying to get ahead” against National’s “rich pricks”.
Even while refusing to discuss specifics, Hipkins has begun laying the groundwork, saying some New Zealanders aren’t paying their “fair share” of tax.
Look for a new top rate on high incomes — perhaps 45 per cent on earnings over $250,000, even if positioned as a temporary measure to help pay down Covid debt and keep a lid on inflation. Ardern’s departure also puts a capital gains tax on owner-occupied property back on the agenda — perhaps a nice populist one, limited to homes sold for more than $3 million.
National would feel obliged to oppose both, putting it on the wrong side of public opinion.
Expect Hipkins to then look at doling out extra cash to households with combined incomes in the $50,000 to $100,000 range — either tax cuts or some other scheme. Better-than-expected inflation data on Wednesday gives him more room to do so.
Cash could start flowing to median voters as soon as July 1. To the extent that risks fuelling inflation, September-quarter inflation data isn’t due until after the election on October 14.
You’d be naïve to think that wasn’t a factor when Labour chose the date.
- Matthew Hooton is a political and public affairs strategist. His clients include the Mayor of Auckland. These views, including those on Three Waters, resource management reform and light rail, are his own and may or may not reflect those of the Mayor.
Minister Andrew Bayly sat down with Tom Raynel to discuss his 2024, and what comes next.