Westpac has forecast that a stronger second half will likely accelerate growth to 2.5%, followed by 3% next year.
ASB said it is not looking like there will be a quick rebound from the mid-2024 slump “but we will take a small bit of growth to bookend the post-Covid challenges and signal the start of recovery”.
The bank said growth is being helped along by primary sectors, such as dairy and meat.
That will also help the food manufacturing sector, but construction still feels the impacts of the past property slowdown.
Retail spending picked up over the quarter, further helping put things in the black.
Greg Smith, head of retail with Devon Funds Management, said it’s a close call whether the country is out of recession.
“Some parts of the economy are doing well, such as the agri sector and tourism, with visitors spending more though the visitor numbers are still below pre-Covid levels.
“The manufacturing sector is out of contraction, and a lower NZ dollar has been a shock absorber.
“The December quarter trading deficit narrowed to $5.9 billion, an improvement of $475m on the previous quarter, with goods exports up $669m and services exports including visitor spending increasing $688m,” Smith said.
In the United States, the Dow Industrial Average was down 0.62% to 41,581.31 points; the S&P 500 declined 1.07% to 5,614.66; and the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.71% to 17,504.12.
The gold price has risen to US$3,030 (NZ$5,213) an ounce from US$2,580 in mid-December.
At home, market leader Fisher and Paykel Healthcare was up 35c to $32.50; Auckland International Airport gained 7.5c to $7.88; and Genesis Energy added 4.13c or 1.94% to $2.17.
Fonterra Shareholders’ Fund gained 5c to $5.6 on the eve of the dairy co-operative’s latest half-year financial result.
Fonterra Co-operative Group itself was up 3c to $4.89. In the retail sector, Hallenstein Glasson declined 27c or 3.46% to $7.53, and Briscoe Group recovered 5c to $4.45.
Napier Port increased 7c or 2.69% to $2.67; T&G Global improved 4c or 2.4% to $1.71; and Pacific Edge added 0.005c or 4.07% to 12.8c.
Mainfreight was down 95c to a 15-month low of $64.90; Contact Energy decreased 11c to $8.52; Manawa Energy declined 9c or 1.93% to $4.58; Chorus eased 8c to $7.72; and Freightways shed 20c or 1.83% to $10.70.
Ebos Group was down 25c to $37.13; Port of Tauranga shed 9c to $6.34; Vulcan Steel declined 18c or 2.09% to $8.43; and Channel Infrastructure eased 3c to $1.92.
Sanford was down 11c or 2.36% to $4.55; NZME declined 4c or 3.42% to $1.13; Eroad declined 2c or 2.15% to 91c; and PGG Wrightson shed 5c or 2.63% to $1.85.
Retirement village operators continued to be weaker, with Ryman Healthcare down 6c or 2.14% to $2.724; and Summerset decreasing 19c to $11.47.
Smith said the Official Cash Rate is expected to be lower over the next two months, the property market will become more buoyant, and this will benefit the retirement stocks.
Other decliners were PaySauce, decreasing 0.006% or 3% to 19.4c; Green Cross Health, shedding 2c or 2.44% to 80c; and Promisia Healthcare, down 1c or 2.7% to 36c.
Investore, down 2c or 1.83% to $1.07, has sold the Woolworths Mount Roskill building for $25m, for an 11% premium to book value. The sale will be completed later this month.
