"It will be interesting to see whether the wider market picks up on that theme and pushes the kiwi lower or whether that's all of the juice you can squeeze out of that forecast," Shirley said.
Earlier today, Westpac chief economist Dominick Stephens said he expects the Reserve Bank will slash the OCR by another 75 basis points to negative 0.5 per cent in November.
"Monetary policy not only needs to come to the party, it needs to spike the punch," Stephens said in a note.
There are two things that will stop the RBNZ from cutting earlier: trading banks' systems aren't currently ready; and its commitment to keeping the rate at 0.25 per cent for a year.
Forward guidance and a long lead time would help with both of the above problems, Stephens said.
Today, New Zealand moved from a complete lockdown of all but essential industries to lesser restrictions which have allowed about 400,000 people to return to work in sectors such as construction. A number of retailers are now able to offer contact-less purchasing including of takeaway food.
Social distancing measures remain in place, even on work sites that have re-opened.
There were three new cases of infection reported today, taking the total to 1,472 while the death toll was unchanged at 19.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern warned the nation that the easing of restrictions doesn't mean New Zealand is "out of the woods.
"We will have to keep stamping Covid out until there is a vaccine," she said.
The New Zealand dollar was trading at 93.05 Australian cents from 93.91 cents at 5pm yesterday. It was at 48.32 British pence from 48.73, at 55.40 euro cents from 55.89, at 64.33 yen from 64.98 and at 4.2492 Chinese yuan from 4.2874.
The trade-weighted index was at 68.02 from 68.21 on Friday - the local market was closed yesterday for the observance of the Anzac Day holiday.
The bid price on the two-year swap rate closed at 0.1625 per cent from 0.2750 per cent on Friday, and the 10-year swaps were at 0.7550 per cent from 0.8400.
