“The global outlook is troubling with sharply lower export commodity prices likely to depress rural incomes, with the weak profitability backdrop and uncertain outlook making firms wary about investing and hiring. Many households are yet to roll on to higher mortgage rates and inflation is running at 6 per cent.
“As a result, the return to an underlying Budget surplus is likely to be pushed back by a year or so (to 2026/27). The Government will also need to issue more debt than anticipated at Budget 2023.”
The bond programme could be lifted between $8 billion and $12b.
Matt Goodson, managing director of Salt Funds Management, said there is a lot of concern about a significant lift in the deficit track that will push back the return to surplus. “The recent bond auctions haven’t been easy, and it’s a difficult outlook.”
The property sector, slowed down by the higher interest rates, was down 1.57 per cent on the NZX index.
Investore fell 5c or 3.97 per cent to $1.23; Property for Industry decreased 3c to $2.235; Stride shed 5c or 3.65 per cent to $1.32; Vital Healthcare Trust was down 4.5c or 2.14 per cent to $2.06; and Argosy declined 1c to $1.12.
Goodman Property Trust was down 4c or 1.85 per cent to $2.12 after telling the market that its six-month result is likely to include a $230m or 4.7 per cent reduction in the valuation of its portfolio, worth $4.7 billion at the end of September.
The revaluation is expected to reduce Goodman’s net tangible assets by 16c to about $2.29. Goodman said while current investor sentiment is being impacted by higher interest rates and macro-economic conditions, industrial property market fundamentals remain strong.
Ebos Group fell $1.48 or 4.08 per cent to $34.81; Fisher and Paykel Healthcare slipped a further 21c to $21.24; Fletcher Building declined 6c to $4.64; and PGG Wrightson decreased 11c or 2.84 per cent to $3.77.
Contact Energy increased 23c or 2.82 per cent to $8.40; Freightways was up 15c or 1.81 per cent to $8.45; and Vulcan Steel rose 62c or 6.98 per cent to $9.50.
Retirement village operators Summerset Group was down 13c to $9.77, and Oceania Healthcare declined 2c or 2.6 per cent to 75c.
In the retail sector, Briscoe Group was down 16c or 3.43 per cent to $4.50; KMD Brands declined 2c or 2.53 per cent to 77c and Hallenstein Glasson decreased 4c to $5.90.
Vista Group shed 4c or 2.56 per cent to $1.52; NZME declined 2c or 2.13 per cent to 92c; Bremworth fell 5c or 10.2 per cent to 44c; and Cooks Coffee was down 0.009c or 4.52 per cent to 19c.
Transport technology company Eroad plunged 36.5c or 31.33 per cent to 80c, near to the adjusted price for its latest capital raise.
Eroad raised $17.6m from the institutional placement. The retail offer of one new share for every 2.06 held at 70c each opens this week, and Eroad is seeking to raise a total of $50m.
The bulk of the institutional offer was taken up afterwards in the shortfall bookbuild after $13.3m worth of entitlements were passed including those from the two largest shareholders. The rights offer raised $4.3m from eligible institutional shareholders. The shares cleared in the bookbuild at 70c each.
Goodson said the adjusted price for the share issue was a very painful experience for existing shareholders and they could be asking serious questions about why the board turned down the takeover bid (by Brilliant Apac at $1.30 per share).
Cancer diagnostics company Pacific Edge, up 0.003c or 3.16 per cent to 9.8c, has provided written submissions to Medicare contractor Novitas detailing why its Cxbladder tests should continue to receive US health funding.
The submissions, including those from US urologists, argue strongly that Cxbladder Triage, Detect and Monitor tests should retain Medicare coverage based on the clinical value they offer to patients, clinicians, and healthcare payers.
Other gainers were Auckland International Airport adding 9c to $8; Spark gaining 5.5c to $4.975; Comvita increasing 6c or 1.89 per cent to $3.23; Move Logistics up 2c or 3.08 per cent to 67c; and Fonterra Shareholders’ Fund collecting 6c or 1.87 per cent to $3.27.
MHM Automation gained 3c or 3.13 per cent to 99c after former Ritchies Transport chief executive Andrew Ritchie and two fellow trustees increased their shareholding to 5.6 per cent.