Goldman Sachs economists are warning Chinese banks could be forced to absorb potential losses on US$8.4 trillion (NZ$14.3t) worth of property debt, and the fallout could cause a “significant negative income shock” for New Zealanders.
In a research note titled China’s property downturn and its implications, Goldman estimated China’s property debt equated to 48 per cent of its GDP.
About two thirds of it (US$5.4t) was individual mortgages, with one third (US$2.6t) held by developers, mostly borrowed from banks.
“In our view, property credit risks are concentrated in developers’ debt,” the note said.
Goldman chief economist for Australia and New Zealand, Andrew Boak, told Markets with Madison “the adjustment underway in China is a big deal”.