KEY POINTS:
New Zealander Graham Tucker is computer chip-maker Intel's senior transtasman technical manager, based in Sydney. On a visit to Auckland this month, Tucker spoke to Simon Hendery about technology changes during his 20-year career with Intel, current trends driving chip development, and the connection between microprocessors and fridges.
How would you sum up the phenomenal advances in microchip technology since Intel was founded 40 years ago?
Moore's Law [coined by Intel co-founder Gordon Moore] states the industry will double transistor count [on a chip] every 18 months, and associated with that is an expectation of doubling the performance. When you look at anything that mankind has done, that type of progression is totally unequalled. That's why you saw [Intel chairman and CEO] Andy Grove winning [the 1997 Man of the Year title] from Time magazine. Computers have made a major impact for mankind in such a short period of time.
How has microprocessor development changed over the years?
When we designed the Pentium architecture it was all about frequency [which equated to processing speed]. That's what customers valued, and that's what you got paid for down the whole food chain. What's changed is now there's a new metric called performance per watt, where we have improved on energy efficiency. That's what we're doing, and mapping that out we have a new, radically different micro-architecture being introduced at the end of the year called Nehalem.
Surely there's a limit to how long development at Moore's Law rates can continue?
I don't think silicon is running out of steam ... Customers have been demanding different usage models. We've introduced a new, small form-factor, very low-powered device [called the Atom processor, and launched this month] to go into compact, low-cost mobile devices. The strategy there is to scale out, especially into markets like China and India, which are growing rapidly, to get to that next tier of population by providing a lower-cost option. In the mature markets like New Zealand there are new usage models. People are well past having only one computer in the home. They don't want to be doing their banking on the same machine their son is playing games on.
What other consumer trends are driving changes in the market?
There's a big trend to mobility. In New Zealand the crossover point from desktops to mobile has happened, and that's driven not only by the portability of the device, but also energy efficiency is going to play a big part in it over the next few years. As a rough rule of thumb there's about a third of the energy used on a mobile device compared with a desktop, so that's going to play out right across the spectrum [from home users to businesses]. Other new usage models people are looking at include wanting to get on a plane with a very small device they can operate in economy class - a basic communications device or a basic computing capability. I can't share what the vendors are doing but there are going to be some interesting form factors coming out.
How does the technology compare with when you started with Intel in the late 1980s?
I came on board soon after the 386 [processor] was launched. It was a groundbreaking design and I remember the general consensus around the industry was: "who would ever need that performance?" We're seeing the same today. Every time we come out with a new technology people say: "Where are we going to use this?" It's the refrigerator law: however big a refrigerator you've got, you fill it.
