Deputy Political Editor Thomas Coughlan interviews Americans on the streets of Philadelphia ahead of next week’s election. Video / NZ Herald
Opinion by Liam Dann
Liam Dann, Business Editor at Large for New Zealand’s Herald, works as a writer, columnist, radio commentator and as a presenter and producer of videos and podcasts.
Trump has threatened to impose 10% tariffs on all imports and 60% tariffs on Chinese goods
OPINION
Something is rotten in the states of America. It’s not just Donald Trump. I’m no fan of the guy, but it’s too easy to blame him for America’s woes. If his only supporters were the weird Maga fanatics he wouldn’t be in this presidentialrace.
After nearly a decade in politics, the guy remains as popular as ever. About half of the United States still supports him and — depending on the vagaries of the turnout in a handful of counties in a handful of swing states — that may well be enough to put him back in the White House.
For many Americans, he remains a real alternative to a mainstream political establishment they have become disillusioned with. They are willing to look through his multiple character flaws in the hope he may usher in some kind of social revolution.
It is, in my view, a foolish hope. As far as I can see, he has all the characteristics of a 19th-century carnival hawker, a snake oil salesman. He has no visible empathy or compassion for the everyday working Americans he claims to champion. He craves an audience and plays to it. And he does it well.
Former US President and 2024 Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally at the Rocky Mount Event Center in Rocky Mount. Photo / AFP
But what does the other side offer? More of the same? And economic system and foreign policy approaches that have delivered diminishing returns with each new crisis.
Americans are being told their economy is doing well. They’ve experienced a soft landing. Inflation is down, unemployment remains low, the sharemarket is strong and GDP growth is solid.
What, then, if they are still going backwards? What should they make of these statistics telling them they are doing well? The answer is they don’t believe them. They believe the system is broken or rigged.
I think it is a bit tragic they are hanging their hopes of renewal on the very billionaires — Trump and supporters such as Elon Musk — who have self-evidently benefited most from the system they rail against.
But Trump provides an altogether more satisfying prescription for change. He allows them to vent their anger. He taps into the rage bubbling beneath America’s polite and friendly exterior. He provides an outlet for frustration, which is much simpler than opponents to his left can offer.
That’s why he might well win. Momentum seems to be going his way.
He is a master salesman and he is selling into a market that is disillusioned with the vague promises they’ve been hearing from mainstream politicians for generations.
None of this is new, of course. I could have written all of the above at any time since 2015.
Four days out from election day, it feels like there’s really nothing else to say. There are no words of wisdom a newspaper columnist can use to add to the debate or change anyone’s mind.
But we can’t ignore it, even here in New Zealand. While the US remains the dominant global superpower the presidential election remains a global news event.
I’ve tried to make it relevant to New Zealand’s economic outlook. But it is difficult. No one can say who will win. But even if we could no one knows how much of what a candidate says on the campaign trail will end up being implemented.
Harris may be a lame duck in the face of a Republican Congress. And as for Trump, who the hell knows?
Some of his staunchest supporters tell us we shouldn’t worry about what he says, we should just look at what he does. I’m not sure how that works in a democracy.
I’m sorry, but in my world words still matter. The last time I looked they were what lifted us above every other animal species ... just.
What we do know is that neither Harris nor Trump will benefit New Zealand with regard to free trade.
We’re facing a world of increasing tariffs and trade barriers that are expected to slow global growth and provide a headwind for small export nations such as ours.
Apart from that the other big issue for most New Zealanders is Wall St, which takes our KiwiSaver balances with it as it rises and falls.
But picking how it will react to either candidate also looks like a lottery right now.
Perhaps there will be a Trump bump as investors anticipate lower taxes and regulations for US corporations. Most analysts say Harris represents the status quo so if she wins that is effectively priced in already.
Longer-term, US economists have raised concerns Trump’s tariff policies might be inflationary and his tax policies could blow out the deficit — and with it the bond markets. Not good news for investors at all!
So now we wait. I used to look forward to US election day.
There was a time when I revelled in the circus-like weirdness of US politics. My favourite writers were guys such as Hunter S Thompson and PJ O’Rourke, who sought to lift the thin veneer of civility that coated an otherwise decadent, depraved and violent electorate.
Thompson and O’Rourke are gone, but I’m pretty sure they’d both see the futility of that ‘gonzo’ approach in 2024.
The veneer is gone. The double-barrelled hyperbole of gonzo journalism can’t compete with mainstream political rhetoric in 2024.
Perhaps the only way for America to move on from Trump and all this bitter division is to elect him again and suffer the consequences.
A tight Harris win certainly won’t cool Maga fury at the establishment. if anything it may foment it further.
But I’m over it. And I’m looking forward to it being over.
Liam Dann is business editor-at-large for the New Zealand Herald. He is a senior writer and columnist, and also presents and produces videos and podcasts. He joined the Herald in 2003.
