Liam Dann: Running hot - what if the economy won't slow down?

High speed economy: The economy might actually be holding up too well, writes Liam Dann. Photo / NZME

OPINION:

For all the talk about recession, the economy still seems to be running hot.

The latest data suggests our economic behaviour doesn't match our downbeat attitude.

As strange as it seems to say, the economy might actually be holding up too well.

Unless we curb our behaviour we're not going to get on top of inflation and we may face a more serious downturn - or crash - further down the line.

It's now well understood that we need to slow the economy down to cool inflation.

The Reserve Bank has hiked the official cash rate by 275 basis points in less than a year - from 0.25 per cent to 3 per cent.

It's already one of the most aggressive tightening cycles the nation has been through but so far the impact has been minimal.

The market expects the OCR will go to 4 per cent and after a moderate slowdown (that may or may not involve a short recession) inflation will return to earth and we'll file the pandemic chaos in the history books.

That's the scenario I'm hoping for too.

But what we hope and what we expect should probably be two different things.

So I think it is important to stay alert to the possibility that the economy takes longer to cool and inflation takes longer to tame.

That would mean interest rates rise higher than forecast and, eventually, a deeper downturn with higher unemployment.

Data in the past week has highlighted just how hard it is going to be for the Reserve Bank to take demand out of the economy and slow inflation.

Building consents for July bounced back sharply.

More than, 50,600 new dwellings were consented throughout New Zealand in the July 2022 year, up 12 per cent from the July 2021 year.

That's just a couple of hundred shy of May's all-time record.

Even with house prices falling sharply and the population declining, we're still in the biggest building boom the country has ever experienced.

I'm a big fan of that construction boom.

I want to see the housing shortage solved and housing affordability back at moderate levels.

But surely we need to see some slowing in the sector. If we don't it might all just crash - as it has done in the past.

ANZ's monthly Business Outlook last week showed confidence rebounding - albeit from low levels.

Construction was one of the most improved sectors.

It was a strong enough result all around to raise some concerns for ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner.

She noted that rate hikes take time to work but warned that "risks are tilted towards the RBNZ having to continue on with OCR hikes next year to cool the economy sufficiently".

Construction is significant because it has been one of the biggest drivers of domestic inflation with costs for building products up 18 per cent in the year to June.

The assumption is that as the housing market cools, demand in the construction sector will slow and so will costs.

But right now it seems like we've all assumed that and used that assumption as a reason to keep building.

Building houses takes time so if we all think this cycle will be done by the middle of next year then there is little reason to pause.

Construction is still booming. Photo / NZME

Meanwhile, the weekly and monthly employment stats show the job market remains as tight as ever.

There's no signs of unemployment rising to relieve inflationary pressure in the labour market.

The corporate reporting season we've just finished, saw listed companies delivering bumper results.

Even the one piece of bad data we saw last week was a reminder that things really aren't bad at all.

A credit report from Centrix showed a 13 per cent rise in the number of people in arrears on consumer debt.

That's a sign that high inflation and higher rates might be starting to take a toll.

More people are struggling to pay off the Visa or to keep up with their "buy now pay later" agreements.

But looking at the data across the past few years, it turns out the 13 per cent rise only takes us back to levels we were at in 2019 - prior to the pandemic.

The same data set showed that arrears on mortgage debt remains at historically low levels - of just 0.96 per cent.

People simply aren't struggling to pay the mortgage in any great numbers.

As recently as 2017, the percentage of mortgages in arrears was 1.55 per cent.

Of course, most New Zealanders will have been fixed for one- and two-year terms.

The real pain is yet to come.

But the market has priced in a peak for fixed rates which also dampens the psychological impact of rate rises.

Those facing higher rates may already be feeling confident about the financial pain being temporary.

Which is why central banks may need to hike further than currently forecast.

That's effectively the message that US Fed chair Jerome Powell delivered last weekend, successfully dosing share market investors with a shot of pessimism.

The share market is a good proxy for the wider economic rebalancing because it moves fast and looks forward.

It suggests that, despite all the grumbling and complaining about inflation, optimism still dominates the economic thinking of investors and consumers.

We're all assuming the green light for getting back to "business as usual" is about to turn and so we can ignore the red.

That's a dangerous assumption, especially when we're already moving at speed.

For more from Liam Dann, listen to his podcast, Money Talks