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Home / Business

Liam Dann: Post Cup reality a harsh one to wake to

Liam Dann
By Liam Dann
Business Editor at Large·NZ Herald·
21 Oct, 2011 04:30 PM4 mins to read

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An All Black win tomorrow could soften the blow brought by a tough economic reality. Photo / APN

An All Black win tomorrow could soften the blow brought by a tough economic reality. Photo / APN

Liam Dann
Opinion by Liam Dann
Liam Dann, Business Editor at Large for New Zealand’s Herald, works as a writer, columnist, radio commentator and as a presenter and producer of videos and podcasts.
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Those unpredictable French will have us all on the edge of our seats this weekend.

Yes, the European leaders' summit looks set to be a nail-biter.

Hopes for a solution to the Greek debt crisis rest squarely on the ability of the French and Germans to co-operate. As with the Rugby World Cup, looking to history doesn't really offer room for comfort.

Are we going to see another attempt at a "shock and awe" solution which will ring-fence Greece once and for all and provide support to the European banks which would be at risk of collapse if it can't pay up - or another Band-Aid solution?

A cynic would suggest we will probably see the latter being touted as the former.

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That has happened before. In fact we must have been through four or five of these make-or-break euro meetings in the past couple of years.

Each time the stakes rise. Many economic pundits now see a Greek default as inevitable - even if it is not officially labelled as such.

What can European leaders do to manage the process and limit the fallout to the banking sector? If they get it right, Europe may finally hit bottom and look forward again. If they get it wrong, then we could yet see another Lehman Bros scenario - this time a European banking crisis that spreads across the globe.

We don't need another one of those. Not right now thanks. Even if the scale of the collapse was not as great as 2008 the world is in a far more fragile state than it was then.

The US economy is already stagnant. Whether or not it slips back into technical recession is probably arbitrary. No one in the States seems to hold out any hope of a proper economic turnaround until the political deadlock in Washington is resolved.

Even in China growth is slowing - just 9.1 per cent growth for the year to September 30. Still huge by global standards, but the lowest rate since 2009.

The Economist reports that Chinese sales to the European Union fell by 7.5 per cent last month, the worst September drop since 1995.

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Australia is also looking worse than expected with the domestic economy flat and looming downside risk of a China slowdown curbing demand for its mineral exports.

And then there is New Zealand - freshly downgraded by the ratings agencies and facing at least three or four years of austerity to get back to surplus, based on Government predictions that many would describe as optimistic.

Let's face it, the country hasn't been paying attention to economics for the past six weeks. And fair enough, rugby is important to us and this is a once-in-a-generation chance to revel in it.

If we haven't let a calamitous earthquake and our biggest environmental disaster spoil the party we are hardly going to let the latest tortured round of the GFC do it.

But there can be no doubt the economic outlook has turned for the worse since the cup started.

Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard won't have taken his eye off that ball.

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As recently as August there were expectations that he would have raised rates by now - reversing the post-quake cut.

But he hasn't and isn't expected to when he makes another call next Thursday. In fact current predictions are that he won't need to move until next March.

While that might be good news for some mortgage holders it certainly doesn't represent good news for the economic outlook.

The problem for central banks is that if there was another big downturn to grip the world, they would have far less scope to slash rates as a quick fix. New Zealand's official cash rate was cut from 8.25 per cent to just 2.5 per cent between June 2008 and April 2009.

And if Bollard's firepower now looks limited, consider the UK at 0.5 per cent, Europe at 1.5 per cent and the US and Japan where rates are virtually at 0.

It's pretty gloomy but a reminder that the stakes are high this weekend when French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel meet to finalise their plan.

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The gloom is another reason the stakes are high at Eden Park too.

The Rugby World Cup isn't going to give us much of an economic boost.

Paymark figures showed spending over the semifinals weekend delivered an additional $4.4 million compared with a year earlier - hardly transformational.

But whichever way the final goes, New Zealand is going to have to wake up to a harsher economic reality over the next few months.

It would be nice, for sentiment and confidence at least, if we are still basking in the afterglow of a cup win while we do.

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