Liam Dann: Is the Government's plan to open fast enough?

The Government has announced a new traffic light system that will come into effect when DHBs hit 90 per cent vaccination targets. Photo / Getty Images

ANALYSIS

We're opening up.

If there was any doubt remaining, today's announcements made it clear the Government is now committed to that.

For many in the business community, the pace will not be fast enough and the targets will not be clear enough.

But given everything that this Government stands for - and given a large base of supporters that remain committed to a more cautious path - this was as bold and aggressive a strategy as could have been expected.

As Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern acknowledged, there was some inevitability about disappointing people on both sides of the debate with regard to the pace of reopening.

But on balance the PM appears to now face a bigger battle fending off critics who'll argue that we are taking too much risk, than those who want a faster pace.

In a way, National did her a favour with its policy of a hard deadline for December 1.

The Government only ever had to land one step to the more cautious side of that line.

And effectively - give or take some more nuanced language - that is where they have landed.

There is a commitment to being fully opened by Christmas and the promise that if second vaccination rates move too slowly there will be a reassessment on November 29.

Incidentally, that would likely mean we will reopen one way or another on December 1 (with no mention of deadlines).

Meanwhile, Finance Minister Grant Robertson has made clear that he has heard the pleas of the struggling Auckland business community.

Finance Minister Grant Robertson. Photo / File

"Over the past two months I have been asked several times whether I am aware of the impact restrictions are having on businesses and workers around the country - particularly in Auckland and Waikato," he said.

"I can tell you without a doubt that I am acutely aware of that impact."

He has responded with another $1 billion of support for business - a total of $2b more in support, including new family hardship grants.

Small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs) - with up to 50 employees - are the firms doing it toughest.

An Auckland Business Chamber survey of 1000 Auckland SMEs this week found that 20 per cent believed they would not survive the lockdown period.

Hopefully, this new support - via the Resurgence Support Payment scheme - can avoid that kind of grim prospect.

Currently, the RSP is paid at a base rate of $1500 per eligible business and $400 for each fulltime employee up to a total of $21,500.

For the payments starting on November 12, this will be $3000 per business and $800 per fulltime equivalent employee (up to 50 employees). This will make the maximum fortnightly payment $43,000.

The Finance Minister has the money and it shouldn't mean any change to the forecast debt track.

The Crown accounts for the half-year to June 30 showed the big economic rebound in the first half of the year had lined the Government coffers.

BNZ head of research Stephen Toplis sifted through all the extra tax revenue, factored in lower spending and estimated the Government still had $12b on hand, without the need to lift its expected peak level of debt.

Is it enough? Probably not for some. But this is a fiendishly complex policy equation.

The Government is balancing the risk of deaths and hospitalisations with the need to give people hope and get the economy moving again.

On top of that, it faces macro-economic challenges like inflation - which mean just throwing money at the crisis can do more harm than good.

Today's announcements were a lot to take in. There was a lot of complexity and more work will need to be done.

But they were, in my view, a brave and reasonable attempt to balance the needs of many competing forces.

This is the Government striving hard, trying to find a fair path forward. And it should be commended for that.