Ahead of the data release, ASB economists had predicted small gains in hiring across the services, goods, and primary sectors.
“If this expectation proves correct, it would mark a welcome turnaround after gloomy headlines of late,” the bank economists added.
But the bump could be a temporary respite given the softness in job advertising and vacancies, ASB said this morning.
“Mid-2024 weakness in economic activity and acute pressures on corporate profitability suggest further job shedding is likely.”
ASB expected the unemployment rate, which was 4.6% in the June quarter and 4.8% in the September quarter, to pass 5% this year.
Westpac senior economist Michael Gordon said today’s employment data was firmer than expected.
Gordon said the data was prone to revision.
“Depending on the impact of any future revisions, this would mark the first monthly increase in filled jobs since March.”
He said areas gaining the most were those linked to the international tourism sector, such as transport, hospitality and recreational services.
“This may have reflected a gearing-up in anticipation of a better summer season than we saw in the previous year.”
Gordon also expected the unemployment rate would rise to 5% or more.
Stats NZ today also disclosed some year-on-year employment data, which showed the construction sector slashed more than 12,000 jobs.
ASB this afternoon said that data showed heavy falls for youth employment, with jobs for those aged 15 to 19 down 11.2% and hiring for people aged 25 to 29 down 4.8% over the year.
“The young continue to bear the brunt of job losses.”
Year-on-year
- Construction lost 12,137 jobs, down 5.8%
- Healthcare and social assistance added 8048 jobs, up 2.9%
- Administrative and support services lost 6869 jobs, down 6.6%
- Manufacturing lost 5823 jobs, down 2.4%
- Retail lost 5445 jobs, down 2.4%.
