William Pesek: Climate change threatens Asia's future growth

Opinion

Jared Diamond's obsession with the number 32 should worry Asia.

The Pulitzer Prize-winning geographer last month lit up the blogosphere anew with his contention that rich nations use 32 times more water, fuel and food than developing countries and produce that much more greenhouse gases and plastics, too.

"The world has serious consumption problems, but we can solve them if we choose to do so," he said. "The time to begin is now."

That's truer than ever as Asian leaders converge on Bali for the Asian Development Bank's annual meeting.

No one believes Earth can withstand billions of Asians consuming the way the West does in the decades ahead. If the number 32 doesn't jolt you, try 6.3 per cent worth of lost gross domestic product.

The Manila-based lender says Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines may lose that much of their GDP annually by the end of the century if climate change isn't stopped. Such numbers are a harbinger of trouble for Asia.

The GDP loss in Asia's developing countries may be twice the global average, and the region can't afford it. That gets at a key paradox: Asia is home to many of the world's extreme poor, and yet executives around the globe are betting on its high growth rates and potential.

The effects of climate change, if unchecked, will limit Asia's ability to grow at rates needed to reduce poverty, avoid runaway government borrowing and reach its promise as a market.

About 93 million of Southeast Asia's 563 million people live on less than $1.25 a day. The only way to boost their living standards is rapid and efficient growth. The financial crisis will set back Asia's prosperity goals. Yet what about the secondary, longer-term effects of today's turmoil?

Climate change is a big one. At the moment, Governments are focused on shielding economies from market woes, global recession and the risk of a swine flu pandemic. Less focus is on reducing carbon-dioxide emissions in the most populous and fastest-growing region. The more this issue is pushed on to the backburner, the more Asian markets will suffer.

This sounds unfair. In a perfect world, Chinese, Indians and Southeast Asians would be free to pollute as much as Europeans and Americans did as they industrialised. The effort also must be global. Southeast Asian initiatives to reduce greenhouse gases won't amount to much if the United States, Europe and other wealthy regions don't do more. China, too.

But as observers such as Diamond say, Earth just couldn't handle that.

Southeast Asia's risks rarely get as much attention as China's, and that's a mistake. Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines are uniquely at risk from rising temperatures and sea levels because of their 173,000km of coastline.

Their economies rely on farming and forestry, which need stable rain and temperatures for maximum production. Asia is seeing increasingly extreme weather, water shortages and forest fires linked to climate change.

It's appropriate that the 67-member ADB is meeting in Indonesia. Rising sea levels will force the largest archipelagic state to redraw its boundaries. Southeast Asia's biggest economy also is its biggest emitter of greenhouse gases.

The global crisis offers a rare opportunity to move toward a low-carbon economy in Southeast Asia. The process will help create jobs, cut poverty and leave nations better prepared to handle the worst effects of climate change. Investing in green industries means new openings away from the sweat-shop culture.

Forestry and land use are the largest contributors to emissions and deserve immediate attention. The ADB says improved efficiency can mitigate energy-related CO2 emissions as much as 40 per cent by 2020, while a further 40 per cent can be eased by switching from coal to natural gas and using renewable sources to generate power.

Washington officials often tell developing nations that if you champion free-market economics and good governance, you can be rich, too. That's becoming a fantasy. US-style consumption on that scale isn't environmentally sustainable, either.

Addressing climate change is no longer a choice, but a necessity.

* William Pesek is a Bloomberg News columnist.