We’re nearing the final countdown to arguably be the biggest change in mobile telecommunications since Kiwis first started using mobile phones - even if it’s softly-softly at first. Here’s what to expect from the initial incarnation of Starlink’s Direct to Cell.
One NZ gears up for Starlink's Direct to Cell - what to expect
One NZ engineers (left to right) Raza Mohsin, Ruane Seumanutafa, Ahmed Abdul Rahim and Trisha Devassy testing their Direct to Cell partnership with Elon Musk’s Starlink outside One NZ North Shore HQ. Photo / Dean Purcell
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Direct to Cell will effectively eliminate mobile blackspots and extend One NZ’s coverage to New Zealand’s territorial limit, 12 nautical miles out to sea.
There are some provisos, most of which only apply to the initial incarnation of the service.
Although Starlink has more than 6000 satellites in low Earth orbit, new models had to be launched to support Direct to Cell.
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One NZ mobile network general manager Thaigan Govender explains that “celltower in the sky” is no metaphor; each of the new-generation Starlink satellites includes a cellular base station - which he sees as an advantage over Starlink rival AST, which uses a ‘repeater’ model where signals are reflected from base stations on the ground.
At launch, there will only be enough Direct to Cell-capable Starlink satellites to provide a window to send or receive a text message once every two minutes.
Within a year, the plan is for continuous coverage - which in turn will enable mobile data and voice calls via satellite, plus internet-of-things (IoT) connectivity for smart gadgets and meters.
Like any satellite service, Direct to Cell needs line-of-sight to the sky - although Govender says that doesn’t necessarily mean walking outdoors.
“We have tested it indoors, near windows and it absolutely works,” he says. “We’ve tested it in cars. It works really well because clearly there’s not a lot of blockage from the windscreen.”
A team of four Starlink staff is camped in New Zealand, helping One NZ with testing on different brands of handset at mobile blackspots up and down the country.
So what are we waiting on?
From a regulatory standpoint, everything’s being signed off in New Zealand. Testing has been successful, Govender says.
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There are three elements that have to fall into place before One NZ can launch Direct to Cell in NZ.
One is straightforward: Launching more satellites.
When the Herald dropped in on testing at Smale’s Farm this month, a Direct to Cell-capable Starlink satellite came over the horizon once every five minutes (they could be tracked on an augmented reality style app as part of the testing) - meaning you could send or receive a text once every five minutes. I received one on my iPhone, sent from a Samsung Galaxy via Starlink.
That’s with around 250 Direct to Cell satellites in orbit. Soon there will be about 300 (Starlink is coy on the actual numbers, not wanting to give away too much to rivals). The “MVP” or “minimum viable product” threshold in practical terms means you’ll be able to send a text via satellite once every two minutes.
On November 17, the Herald watched the latest SpaceX mission for the new service as a Falcon 9 rocket blasted off from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California carrying 20 Starlink satellites - 13 of which were Direct to Cell-capable.
Only two more missions are required for Starlink to reach its Direct to Cell launch constellation size, according to an X post by SpaceX senior director of satellite engineering Ben Longmier the day after the November 17 launch.
Falcon 9 launches are mind-blowing for a first-time observer - it sounded like the sky was being ripped apart - but also routine for SpaceX. The company - which uses launchpads in California, Texas and Florida - had clocked 408 launches before last weekend, which featured three flights.
The second factor is a Federal Communications Commission investigation in the US into allegations by T-Mobile rivals Verizon and AT&T, who in August alleged Starlink Direct to Cell will cause interference with their terrestrial mobile networks. The investigation is ongoing.
Govender says the claim is without merit. He notes that during October, the FCC gave T-Mobile and Starlink emergency dispensation to activate Direct to Cell in Florida as Hurricane Milton approached and it was used by 27,000 customers to send some 250,000 texts without issues.
Still, the FCC hasn’t given a timeline for wrapping things up, and its green light in the US is required for the global service to operate anywhere, including New Zealand. Musk successfully pushed for Brendan Carr, a Republican, to be picked to lead the FCC. Carr - who needs no Senate confirmation, will take over as FCC chairman on January 20 as the Trump administration moves into the White House.
The third issue is finalising which handsets will be supported at launch. Keen viewers of the video at the top of this story and the various photos will spot recent Apple iPhone and Samsung Galaxy phones, but One NZ is keeping mum on the launch line-up. The reason is that while no hardware modifications are necessary, there does have to be a nip-and-tuck firmware upgrade (that is, a software upgrade by the phone maker).
It’s expected that there will be a “fast follow” after the commercial launch, with more makes and models added to the compatibility line-up over the first three or four months (notwithstanding that Apple already offers an SOS via satellite text service in NZ, for owners of an iPhone 14 or above on any network, via its partnership with Rocket Lab customer Globalstar. With iOS 18, Apple expanded texting via satellite for everyday use, at least for US users. Presumably, the service will expand to other territories once Globalstar launches more birds).
Direct to Cell’s support for an industry standard called 3GPPP should - on paper at least - mean that that nearly every make and model of smartphone sold over the past few years is compatible.
Why Starlink?
“After Cyclone Gabrielle happened, and people lost coverage and connectivity, we looked around the world for new technology solutions that might help in a natural disaster, and one of the things that we came across was the SpaceX Direct to Cell satellite service,” One NZ chief executive Jason Paris told the Herald during Starlink testing session.
“Now they already had launched the Starlink broadband service, and this was the next generation of the satellites that were being launched.
“Instead of it being transmitted to a kind of broadband receiver, it’s transmitted to the receiver that’s in your phone. We thought that was pretty incredible when we wanted New Zealand to be a part of it, and so we were the first telco in the Southern Hemisphere and the second one in the world to sign up to a collaboration with us with SpaceX.”
Got to watch a SpaceX Falcon 9 launch from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California. We were four miles away, but it was still incandescent and it sounded like the sky was being ripped apart (you can't get the full effect on your phone but still turn it up). Was carrying 20… pic.twitter.com/uoRdnHe6RZ
— Chris Keall (@ChrisKeall) November 20, 2024
Govender said One NZ also investigated alternatives, including Lynk, a tiny start-up that’s taking on Starlink, but found them lacking.
Spark and 2degrees have thrown in their lot with Lynk, which has no timeframe for a New Zealand launch.
Lynk government affairs VP Tony DeTora told the Herald earlier this week: “We have five satellites operating in orbit now, Our current license covers five additional satellites.”
Down the track, Starlink faces more industrial-strength competition from the Amazon-owned Kuiper NZ, which has billions earmarked for a network of 3000 satellites, even if only two prototypes are in orbit so far. In July, Amazon bought land and radio licences in New Zealand as part of its groundwork for Kuiper.
Mobile networks leave 40% of NZ without coverage
Paris said: “3G, 4G and 5G covers 99% of where New Zealanders live and work, but that’s only 60% of the country”.
“The other 40% doesn’t have coverage, and it’s not economic for any telecommunications company to be able to build out cell towers or fibre connectivity to every single part of New Zealand.
“That’s why cell towers in the sky and from space are a game-changer, because you’re getting the coverage from lower orbit, and that means that the coverage won’t just be in New Zealand, but actually 12 nautical miles off the coast.”
When will it launch?
“We’re not going to rush it out just because we want it to happen before the end of the year. If it’s not December, it’s going to be pretty soon after January, February,” One NZ head of sustainability and corporate relations Nicky Preston says.
Will I have to pay more?
One NZ will not add any surcharge to existing plans for Starlink’s Direct to Cell, or introduce a special plan built around the service.
But it will be restricted to the telco’s higher value plans (the exact plans have yet to be named). That is, it will be used as a lure to encourage existing customers to upgrade to more expensive plans, and attract new customers for contract or post-pay plans on One NZ.
Ultimately, the positioning could depend on whether Apple extends its text-by-satellite feature from emergency to everyday messages in NZ, as it has done offshore.
One NZ can say that those on pre-pay plans won’t get access.
Neither will those on the likes of Kogan Mobile - the so-called mobile virtual network operators who sell a service that runs on One NZ’s network under a wholesale deal.
But 111 texting, and, once it arrives, 111 calling, will be available to anyone with a compatible phone, whether they’re on One NZ, Spark or 2degrees.
Does One have a 12-month jump on the pack, or longer?
One NZ has not revealed how much it’s paying for its Starlink partnership or how long it will have exclusive dibs.
Starlink direct to mobile phone Internet is exclusively with @Tmobile in the US for the first year, then other carriers thereafter.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) August 31, 2024
We are starting off working with one carrier in each country, but ultimately hope to serve all carriers. https://t.co/CDVeiftVNT
On September 3, Musk posted to X: “Starlink direct to mobile phone Internet is exclusively with T-Mobile in the US for the first year, then other carriers thereafter. We are starting off working with one carrier in each country, but ultimately hope to serve all carriers.”
Here, there’s a hint of right-of-renewal. “We’ve got it exclusive at the moment. It’s a commercial decision on how long that exclusivity goes for,” One NZ’s Preston says.
Starlink currently has a network of six ground stations in New Zealand.
The Herald understands it will expand this network - which helps its satellites connect to the internet - as it moves into Internet-of-Things connectivity for Direct to Cell.
Interestingly, two of the four Starlink engineers in New Zealand at the moment are IoT specialists.
Does Elon want to eat everyone’s lunch?
Starlink has gone direct to the customer for its home and business satellite broadband (even if the business version of its services is resold by Spark, One NZ and 2degrees).
Will Elon Musk ultimately want to do the same thing with Direct to Cell (which is due to be rebranded Direct to Mobile after launch), once data and voice are added to the mix?
Govender says One NZ is better positioned to manage the customer relationship - especially at the sharp end of things with sims and e-sims. Terrestrial mobile performance will always have the edge (”We’ll be planning or deploying 6G by 2030″, Govender says) even with Starlink satellites, which have a five-year lifespan before they run out fuel, constantly being upgraded. Starlink also needs local telcos for their spectrum rights.
Will the Commerce Commission’s legal action slow things down?
Last week, the Commerce Commission said it was filing charges against One NZ over its initial “100% mobile coverage” marketing campaign for Direct to Cell - from April to June last year - which it sees as a possible breach of the Fair Trading Act.
The market regulator argues that One NZ was not clear enough about factors such as the initial service being text only and requiring line-of-sight to the sky. One NZ is fighting the charges.
If the ComCom ultimately wins in court, One NZ could face a financial penalty. But the case only targets historic marketing. It won’t prevent Direct to Cell launching.
Delivering for the milk man?
Paris would not comment on the ComCom’s legal action while it was before the court.
Instead, he looked ahead.
“We’re testing that text message servicing. Then about 12 months later, again, once we’ve got over 1000 cell towers in the sky, we should be able to launch voice and data services.”
Govender says enterprise customers will yield gains from new features, including the coming IoT support, but says even the text capability arriving shortly could benefit the likes of Fonterra (a Spark customer).
“If you’re picking up milk in the back end of nowhere [outside mobile coverage], being able to text to say you’ve broken down is a pretty massive productivity benefit.”
Paris adds that Direct to Cell text via satellite could be a literal lifesaver for the likes of trampers lost in the bush or recreational fisherman who come a cropper at sea.
“If we can just save one life, it’ll be worth it,” he says.
Chris Keall is an Auckland-based member of the Herald’s business team. He joined the Herald in 2018 and is the technology editor and a senior business writer.
