KEY POINTS:
Stanley Melbourne Bruce is remembered for only one achievement. Until last Saturday evening, he was the only Australian Prime Minister to lose his seat at a general election - way back in 1929.
Bruce was our most anglophile Prime Minister. He was British to the bootstraps. He also decided to change Australia's industrial relations system, having fought with the unions on the waterfront. In 1929, he attempted to radically alter the balance in Australian conciliation and arbitration by referring powers back to the states. The Depression was looming and the Australian electorate did not like the idea of the Commonwealth damaging the carefully crafted industrial settlement which had been in place since 1907.
Bruce lost his seat of Flinders.
Last Saturday night, according to the continuing count, John Howard, in Bennelong, joined him. And for very similar reasons.
When the Howard Government is lowered into its grave, the corpse will have "WorkChoices" stencilled across its chest. It was a suicide right on the stage.
It may be useful to make a point about Australian culture. The Australian notion of "fairness" may be so deeply ingrained in our collective national psyche that any politician eroding the concept or showing disrespect to the intrinsic value of "a fair go" will pay a heavy price. John Howard never seemed to realise this. His normally acutely tuned antennae proved worthless at the end of his Government.
But WorkChoices alone was not enough to kill off the conservative coalition in Canberra. There were other elements. Howard stayed far too long. His use-by date was not only showing, it had mould on it. All the baggage of his Government had to be carried during this campaign: from the notion of non-core "promises" that had been broken, through the "kids overboard" controversy, to whether the PM should have apologised to Australia's indigenous people.
Had Howard handed over to Peter Costello last year, it might have been very different. Costello could have fashioned a new Government, with a new profile and a new agenda. He would have moved on the Kyoto Protocol and other contentious issues, where Howard was seen to be stuck in the past. Instead, the Government vacated the "New Leadership" and "Fresh Ideas" profile to Labor and Kevin Rudd.
And Rudd capitalised on this classic error by the conservatives. While most observers agreed that the Government's campaign was shambolic, Federal Labor ran the most disciplined and focused campaign in its history. The result was Labor sweeping to power with a swing of 6 per cent nationally. To put matters in perspective, it was greater than that in the elections of either Gough Whitlam or Bob Hawke as Prime Minister.
So what will the new Rudd Labor Government look like, particularly for business?
The signs are already apparent that this will be a Government that seeks to honour its mandate but not move radically beyond it. Rudd had little trouble in saying no to John Robertson, secretary of Unions NSW, on union arguments that certain Australian Workplace Agreements should be retrospectively broken by employees. Rudd and his deputy, Julia Gillard, plan to send a bill to the Senate early in the New Year to abolish WorkChoices. As Gillard has told all and sundry, the bill will be a vote up or vote down challenge to the Senate, still dominated by the conservatives. Amendments will not be considered. Should the conservatives block the bill, a huge political argument will ensue.
On this point, there is little doubt that the conservatives will abandon their inflexibility on workplace relations. Senator Barnaby Joyce (National Party, Queensland) said during the campaign that he would entertain supporting such a Labor bill of abolition. Otherwise, as intelligent conservative strategists realise, the coalition will be fighting WorkChoices in 2010, and again losing.
The "Education Revolution" promised by the Prime Minister-elect is already unfolding. Labor MPs have been told to establish liaison with their local schools so the rollout of computers for every student in every senior classroom can be planned.
The Kyoto Protocol will be ratified well before Rudd attends the next United Nations conference on the environment in Bali next month. More than anything else, the ratification of the largely symbolic Kyoto agreement will symbolise the changing of the guard in Canberra. One senior diplomat in the Australian capital says Prime Minister Rudd will be able to announce in Bali: "We're back."
For business, competition policy looms large on the agenda. Shadow Assistant Treasurer Chris Bowen, one of the brightest and best in the Labor team, has argued for renewal in the competition agenda, including introducing criminal sanctions for offences such as cartel behaviour. The Federal Court has been pressing for these changes and the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) would welcome them. Bowen is one to watch in the Labor line-up.
George W Bush phoned Rudd to congratulate him and an invitation to Washington is in the works. There is no doubt that Labor will remain committed to the strength and endurance of the United States alliance, but will establish a timetable for the withdrawal of Australian combat forces from Iraq.
Broadband rollout will also be important. Telstra has been at war with the previous Government and may not find the new Government any more to its liking. Labor is committed to a broadband rollout to reach 98 per cent of Australians and wants a private-sector partner to achieve this goal. Where does all this leave the Coalition? The short answer: in dire straits.
Costello declined the leadership, working out that every federal government in Australia since James Scullin in 1931 has been afforded two terms in office.
The leadership combination for the wilderness of Opposition is likely to devolve upon people such as Malcolm Turnbull, Brendan Nelson and Julie Bishop.
The Liberals' central dilemma is just where they stand as a party. Howard took them well to the right, alienating some core Liberal voters who are also wedded to the fairness doctrine of Australian culture.
Senior figures, including former NSW Premier Nick Greiner, have already called for the Liberals to be more a party of the centre and far more inclusive.
As for Rudd, Labor's mandate is very much his achievement. True, it was a solid team effort but Rudd's capacity to project himself above the fray to the electorate has rarely been seen in Australian politics.
The Government has a clear mandate for change, but of modest dimensions, and how well the Rudd Labor Government manages this will determine how long it stays in office.
It has started by establishing a "Razor Gang", overseen by Treasurer Wayne Swan and Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner, to make substantial savings in federal spending - unusual, perhaps, for Labor but welcome in reassuring business and voters of its conservative economic credentials.
Australians punished the last Government for going way too far in the workplace. John Howard is now grouped with Bruce. No Labor leader will want to risk joining them.
* Stephen Loosley, a former federal president of the Labor Party and Australian senator, chairs business advocacy group Committee for Sydney
