O'Sullivan: National must get up and run

By FRAN O'SULLIVAN

National MPs heading into their two-day caucus this week should crank up the pace if they expect business to open its wallet with campaign funds for this year's election.

Auckland barbecue talk this summer - particularly in the influential eastern suburbs - suggests that National's fundraisers, from president Michelle Boag through to well-connected businessmen like Craig Heatley who have previously helped out, will have a tough time persuading corporates to part with more than token sums unless the party gets off its knees and starts landing a few blows on Helen Clark's Government.

Long-time party officials are worried that finance may well dry up. Questions are beginning to emerge over National's funding strategy that are unlikely to become public until its annual conference.

MMP electoral "reform" has changed the corporate funding calculations.

In a situation where National looks set to be an outright loser at the polls, business donors will want to weigh several factors before deciding where the bulk of their cash should go.

Present thinking is that the Greens look like gaining a much higher percentage of the vote than the Alliance or New Zealand First, the two other potential partners for a Labour-led Government.

In this case it makes sense to ensure more money goes to Labour to ensure its position is boosted and Helen Clark's hand strengthened in subsequent negotiations.

Business is quite capable of figuring that despite the negative policies that Attorney-General and Labour Minister Margaret Wilson keeps visiting on them, it may be more in its interests if the Greens are kept in check and Helen Clark pulls her academic minister's head in, rather than pour its dollars down the drain to boost an opposition that cannot get its act together.

Many New Zealand businesses have signed up to a social responsibility role and have picked up the sustainable environment cause. But if the Greens' position is bolstered at the election the moratorium on genetic modification may become permanent in a post-election tradeoff.

Even if it fails to spark, National's funding tap would never be completely turned off. Business contributors always hedge their bets to some degree.

Their difficulty is that leader Bill English seems set on repudiating much of National's recent free-market record in government as he makes a bid for the "soft" but illusory centre ground of New Zealand politics.

But nothing has emerged so far to excite business.

The party's website boasts "10 points of difference" between National and Labour. Some are fatuous, all lack political "cut-through" and one is farcical.

National should have by now updated its claim that "Labour is free-loading on our partners and making New Zealand isolationist and non-aligned", given the Government's clear commitment to support the Bush Administration's war on terrorism by committing SAS troops to the Afghanistan theatre.

Mr English is affable and possesses a strong intellect.

But he has displayed precious little political hunger, let alone a streak of the killer instinct, since his lieutenants rolled Jenny Shipley four months ago.

His "getting to know New Zealand" campaign mirrors the very strategy Helen Clark herself employed in her six years as Opposition leader.

The difficulty is that if he does not lift his profile, he can be assured of just such a fate.

His team was certainly missing in action during the Christmas/New Year period, the time for Opposition politicians to ram home their party's contribution.

Between December 21 and January 8 no press statements were filed to the party's website.

Since their leader got back to town, MPs have stepped up the attack on financial issues. But some, like revenue spokeswoman Annabel Young, who is trying to soften up the middle ground with her statements on support for lower taxes (but I don't know whether we could do that, sha says), risk introducing brand confusion over what the party stands for.

One of these was Ms Young's attack on the "fawning" IRD for "falling over itself" to give "foreign" America's Cup sailors gold-plated treatment while New Zealand taxpayers are left on hold when they phone call centres.

The statement could easily have rolled off NZ First leader Winston Peters' fax machine.

It has been six months since public relations operator Ms Boag got her hands on the party's presidency and outlined an agenda for her first 90 days in office.

National had to achieve seven jobs if it was to have any chance at all of winning this election.

In summary, it had to: select superb candidates; lift organisational and parliamentary performance; inspire New Zealanders with National's vision for New Zealand; create excitement with policy debates; become a superbly tuned organisation; improve communications and be ready to launch an election-winning campaign from this July.

Ms Boag's own profile has markedly dropped since Mr English ascended to the leadership. But while a lot of work has gone on, much of it necessarily has been out of the public eye.

The intensive policy blitz has resulted in four key areas - workplace relations, health, defence and taxation - being singled out for a think-tank approach.

But as with Ms Young's comments on taxation, a lot of what has emerged is confusing.

National's predicament is made more difficult as New Zealand has a Prime Minister who is not afraid to change tack when pragmatism demands it.

Helen Clark also has the benefit of incumbency, and knows how to use it. After initially dropping the ball after the September 11 attacks, she adroitly changed tack and strongly supported the Bush Administration.

This mirrored her successful repositioning on globalism, where she has emerged as a strong supporter for free trade, with her ministers taking a proactive approach at the World Trade Organisation and in their pursuit of bilateral agreements.

National's chance of pinging Helen Clark as she prepares for next month's Washington visit with President George W. Bush is slight.

It could hardly make a runner by castigating her for New Zealand's anti-nuclear ships stance - a policy which led to this country's effective expulsion from the Anzus alliance - as it did not itself revoke the policy in its nine years in government.

Helen Clark will also unveil a technology package soon and policies to stimulate international investment are under consideration.

National will need to take all of this into its deliberations this week, position itself as strongly pro-business, with strong economic growth strategies, and market itself tirelessly if it can expect business to come to its party.

Right now it remains a loser.