China's coronavirus outbreak has delivered a fast, sharp shock to the New Zealand economy.
From tourism to the meat trade, the disease has highlighted just how reliant New Zealand has become on China.
In less than a decade, the People's Republic has come to dominate nearly all New Zealand's major merchandise exports.
Already, some economists are saying the virus - officially named Covid-19 - and a local drought could tip New Zealand into recession this year.
How did we get here? Have we become too reliant on China for our economic wellbeing? And what's going to happen in a post-Covid-19 world?
Make no mistake, New Zealand has hitched its economic wagon firmly to China.
Wherever you look, China looms large for nearly all our key commodities.
What's often overlooked is that China is also New Zealand's biggest source of imports, which itself could have far-reaching implications if China's vast manufacturing sector does not get up to speed soon.
In 2013 China overtook Australia as New Zealand's top export goods trading partner and it now stands head and shoulders above the rest.
Last year China bought $16.7 billion of New Zealand goods - up $2.9b on the previous year, led by rises in beef, milk powder and lamb.
The second biggest export destination - Australia - took about half that - $8.7b worth.
On the other side of the coin, China topped the list for imports to New Zealand - clocking up $13.0b in sales to this country, up by 3.7 per cent and led mostly by electrical and mechanical equipment.
How we got here
Beijing-based David Mahon, who heads Mahon China Investment Management, says New Zealand companies have become more informed about the China market and the process of exporting and identifying distributors has become more sophisticated.
Mahon says the impact of New Zealand-Chinese people either exporting or brokering exports from their domicile in New Zealand should not be underestimated either.
"I think that's going to be an increasing factor - strong relationships coming out of the New Zealand-Chinese community," says Mahon.
"That bridge that immigration has helped build is beginning to bear results."
The 2008 Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between New Zealand and China is seen as a watershed moment for trade relations.
As the only country with an FTA at the time, Chinese companies looked on New Zealand with some favour - but that was a small part of things, Mahon says.
"The whole consumer concept of what is safe and what is reliable has become something that pops into consumers' minds and to larger companies' minds," he says.
On that score, New Zealand's reputation is up there with Switzerland's.
"Australia comes close to that, but those two are in a class of their own.
"The national brand has indelibly formed in Chinese consumers' minds in a very positive manner.
"And it's been very much helped by the huge tourist numbers that have come down from China to experience New Zealand."
Mahon says dairy formed a beach-head for other exporters after the FTA, but it was not all plain sailing.
Fonterra's 2013 botulism scare and product recall, which was widely reported in the Chinese media, meant the opportunity was temporarily lost.
"For a while New Zealand had its place in the sun, but perhaps did not realise it," Mahon says.
New Zealand dairy now faces competition from Europe and the domestic sector, but China remains a huge customer.
In total, about a quarter of Fonterra's exports go to China, where they are consumed by about 150 million people.
The co-op says about 11 per cent of all dairy products consumed in China comes from its farmers.
For Mahon, a 35-year China veteran, it came as no surprise that China should become New Zealand's biggest trading partner.
"China has one fifth of the world's people, very little arable land, and insufficient and often unreliable supply of protein," he notes.
"It was a given that they would want to import as much as they could from New Zealand.
"Our quality is generally very, very good ... there are no questions around the quality, that's an important consideration for the Chinese consumer."
Mahon believes the reforms and restructuring taking place within Fonterra will bring a lot more stability to the dairy sector, and all players will benefit from that.
"We probably suffer from a lack of unity in the meat and seafood sector, but when it comes to horticulture, [kiwifruit marketer] Zespri leads the way for any New Zealand companies selling to China," he says.
In 2000, mainland China accounted for just under 2 per cent of Zespri's global sales - about $4 million worth - making it one of Zespri's smallest markets.
Today, greater China is Zespri's largest retail market, accounting for about 25 per cent of its global sales volume.
Overexposed?
Mahon says companies that have the resources and the supply of products to diversify into other markets, should do so.
"Many of New Zealand's companies are small to medium sized and don't have the luxury of diversification, but in principle it makes sense."
He makes the case for seeking out other large markets which have a growing and more moneyed middle class, like China.
Mahon points to Indonesia, with its large, discerning and well educated middle class, as an example of a potential alternative.
Larger companies and governments should focus on hedging their bets, he says.
"If we could find some sort of counterbalance, it would make sense."
Future growth
While Mahon is confident the New Zealand-China growth story will continue, he sees some risks.
"I think the growth can last for many years, but it would only take one major statement by a politician in Wellington that was anti-Chinese, or that was pro the American strategy of containing China and slowing its growth, to hurt our trade significantly," he says.
"And that's one of the biggest risks that we face."
Virus damage
Mahon believes the coronavirus outbreak will be hugely damaging to the Chinese economy in the short term, "and therefore very damaging to New Zealand's economy in the small to medium sized sector, in the short term as well".
He estimates that it will carve 0.5 per cent off China's GDP growth this year - bringing it down to 5.5 per cent instead of 6 - or perhaps 1 per cent if the situation is not resolved by the end of May.
But by the third or fourth quarter, he expects to see a surge in the economy, and China's growth returning to a more healthy clip next year.
Local impact
Economic research house Infometrics expects softer export earnings in the first half of this year as a result of the outbreak.
Infometrics senior economist Brad Olsen says tourism activity is likely to drop, "and New Zealand's larger trading footprint with China means our primary sector exports are at greater risk, with dairy, meat, forestry, and horticultural exports all experiencing issues".
"Supply chain disruptions are also becoming apparent, and there is a risk that, if the outbreak persists, consumer and business confidence may take a hit as a contagion effect takes hold and reduces economic activity," he said in a report.
"With Covid-19 cases still rising, the end of the outbreak and the economic impact on New Zealand remain highly uncertain, but the first half of 2020 is likely to see markedly lower economic growth," said Olsen.
Turning point
Independent economist Cameron Bagrie says the 2008 trade agreement was the turning point for New Zealand's exports to the PRC.
"The FTA opened a pretty big door and we waltzed through it," he says.
"If you look at the stuff that we are putting through China, it's the stuff they need and what they want.
"It fits with a more consumer driven society in China."
In the commodities world, the first leg of China's industrialisation had Australia - with its iron ore and coal - at the epicentre.
"The next big leg has been consumer-driven, and that's more aligned with New Zealand's product mix as opposed to Australia's."
The meteoric rise of New Zealand's trade with China highlights "concentration risk," he says.
"But we have to remember that the Chinese economy has basically tripled since that FTA was signed."
Two sides
China isn't just New Zealand's biggest export. It is also New Zealand's biggest source of imports.
It's a healthy two-way trade, in which New Zealand currently enjoys a trade surplus with China.
With China being at the epicentre of the world's supply chain, the slowdown in manufacturing there will be keenly felt internationally.
Hong Kong's South China Morning Post says provincial governments in China's east coast manufacturing hubs have begun arranging buses, trains and flights to bring migrant workers back to factories as the country desperately tries to restart production halted by the coronavirus outbreak.
President Xi Jinping has urged local authorities to kick-start economic activity after an extended Lunar New Year holiday, but many businesses are finding one key component missing – workers.
At least two-thirds of China's nearly 300 million migrant workers had not returned to their jobs as of last Friday, the paper reported.
On the world scene, technology giant Apple - which has manufacturing facilities in China - has warned that it will not meet its sales target in the first quarter because of the outbreak.
In South Korea, car maker Hyundai says component shortages have forced it to halt production.
Bagrie says the impact on the global supply chain of a slowdown in China's manufacturing will be devastating.
"Stuff is just getting parked up so you can write off Q1 and hope that we can get back into things in Q2."
Hope and fear
Inevitably, the rise and rise of China as a trading partner raises the "eggs in one basket" question.
Bagrie says that while there is "concentration risk", it has come about because China is now one of the world's biggest economies, one that could potentially overtake America at some stage.
"In some shape or form, we are going to have reliance on China," he says.
Any discussion about New Zealand's exports invariably comes down to the question of whether enough value is added to products before they end up on a ship.
"The big issue strategically for the New Zealand primary sector is shifting up the value added chain and making sure that we are appropriately rewarded for the product that we are putting out in the market."
Bagrie says that, mathematically, New Zealand can feed only 50 million people, so NZ Inc does not need to be "donkey deep" in one market.
Half empty
Bagrie's "glass half empty" view is that coronavirus followed a period of very low interest rates after the global financial crisis (GFC).
He worries that the outbreak could set off a chain of events across world markets that have struggled to shake off the GFC's after-effects.
"The global economy has been vulnerable for a while, but we have been able to box on.
"We don't have an awful lot of policy ammunition left if things go pear shaped, because interest rates are pretty low and government debt levels are pretty high.
"It doesn't take a big fuse to light a bomb and I wonder whether coronavirus is the fuse that tips the global economy over."
The post-GFC years have seen a rapid build-up in corporate debt, which could leave companies exposed if earnings start to falter.
From now on, corporate earnings around the world will be watched closely "because the global economy looks to me as if it's close to a standstill in Q1".
"Firms with high leverage will need to be making the sales and producing stuff to be making money on the other side."
The hope is that when the outbreak fades, the effects of coronavirus will go away very quickly, Bagrie says.
"The fear is that it won't."
