Immigration: Another annual record for departures from New Zealand

The October year saw the departure of more than 77,000 Kiwis for a net loss of 53,000. Photo / Greg Bowker

New Zealand’s annual net migration gain has fallen to 38,800, the lowest level since December 2022

Annual arrivals continued to ease while the 131,100 long-term or permanent departures to October 2024 were, provisionally, the highest on record for an annual period.

Annual migrant arrivals provisionally peaked at 235,100 in the year ended October 2023. Annual net migration provisionally peaked in the year ended October 2023, with a gain of 136,000.

Since then there has been a significant turnaround, with the number of New Zealand citizens leaving at or near record levels for the past several months.

The October year saw the departure of more than 77,000 Kiwis for a net loss of 53,000.

But ASB senior economist Mark Smith noted some signs in the most recent monthly data, that the net inflows were stabilising.

“We expect annual net migration inflows into New Zealand to ease below 30,000 persons by early 2025 and to modestly strengthen thereafter,” he said.

October saw the highest monthly seasonally adjusted net permanent and long-term inflow in 3 months, at 2,790 persons, he noted.

“Monthly arrivals rose 5.3% and hit their highest level since May, whereas departures fractionally edged higher. After steadily declining since mid-2023, the 3-monthly average net inflow is now ticking up”.

Smith said he suspected there remained “a large net outflow with Australia. March 2024 year figures showed a net loss of 30,100 people across the ditch”.

“We anticipate departures will remain historically high as Kiwis seek better opportunities abroad,” he said.

Rising departures and slowing arrivals saw the net inflow of non-New Zealand citizens cool to 91,700 persons, well below the October 2023 peak of 176,900.

India, China and the Philippines remained the largest source of non-New Zealand citizen arrivals.

Permanent and long-term arrivals of non-New Zealand citizens — at 144,900 annually — remain historically high, but the annual pace is falling. Meanwhile, migration departures of non-New Zealand citizens looked to have plateaued at around 53,300 a year.

Liam Dann is business editor-at-large for the New Zealand Herald. He is a senior writer and columnist, and also presents and produces videos and podcasts. He joined the Herald in 2003.