Jim Eagles: Cross fingers, then hope for the best at election time

So which of the policies on offer looks to have the greatest appeal to business people?

In reality those in business, like everyone else, are motivated by a range of factors when they vote. They don't just pick the party they think would be best for their business, they also consider education, health, law and order and the environment.

But even if business people did take only business policies into account, their election decisions could still be expected to vary.

Those in the organic produce industry, for instance, might be expected to vote Green.

The domestic tourism industry could be attracted by the Alliance's promise to give a lot of people an extra week's holiday.

Training providers might hope to get extra work preparing New Zealanders to fill all the vacancies if New Zealand First's anti-immigration policies are ever implemented.

Provincial businesses may feel inclined to back the Progressive Alliance so Jim Anderton is able to continue distributing grants and backing development projects.

But surveys consistently show that for almost all business the big issues are taxes and compliance costs. If that is so then businesses should not find it too hard to choose.

On taxes the differences are clear-cut. Labour spurns the idea that tax cuts might be beneficial to growth and, true to form, raised taxes in its first three years. National and Act both accept the economic orthodoxy that lower taxes boost the economy and promise tax cuts.

In the compliance costs area the contrast is less stark but still fairly clear. Labour has made much of reducing compliance costs but has so far failed to act on many of the areas of greatest concern to business. It has also introduced new policies which have worsened the burden and has more waiting in the wings for a second term.

The Business Herald survey of over 700 Auckland businesses which revealed that 85 per cent consider compliance costs have risen in the past three years probably says it all from a business perspective.

National has trumpeted its intention to launch an assault on compliance costs. Businesses might well feel a little cynical about that, since National did little on that front when last in power, but at the very least a National government could be expected to repeal some of Labour's more burdensome policies.

Nevertheless, although Labour may be at odds with business over taxes and red tape, many in business are enthusiastic about the Government's efforts to create sector taskforces, foster closer links between research organisations and business, provide more venture capital, target immigration and tertiary education to meet skill shortages and to boost trade and open up new markets.

In addition, the likes of Helen Clark, Michael Cullen and Pete Hodgson, in particular, have personally impressed many business people who have dealt with them.

So, while the policies of National and Act are more in tune with business wishes, the prospect of a re-elected Labour government does not seem to be viewed as a total disaster.

The latest Business Herald survey of business leaders found that - on a scale of 0 to 10, with 5 being neutral - while a Labour-Green coalition was rated a strongly negative 2.5, Labour on its own was a mildly positive 5.2.

The survey certainly found that on the whole business leaders would prefer to see National in power (that rated 6.4) or even better a National-Act coalition (6.6) but that margin of preference, while significant, was far from overwhelming.

In any event, business people are generally very pragmatic and they appreciate the reality that, barring a political cataclysm, Labour will be returned for a further three years.

So, while most business people will probably vote for National or Act, business groups and their leaders are being careful to avoid any criticisms which might see them put on Helen Clark's blacklist.

They also have their fingers very tightly crossed about what a second-term Labour government might do.

Some fear that several of the items already on Labour's second term agenda, especially on the employment front, point to a further swing against business.

Others, especially some who have worked closely with the Government, are hopeful that in its second term Labour might put real resources behind its rhetoric about the need to boost economic growth.

From a business perspective the outcome on that front is likely to be a lot more significant than the details of the election result.

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