Colin James: Minor Cabinet ripples, no big waves

Business is not likely to see much change from the Cabinet changes Helen Clark will ring when she forms her government.

Though Clark has kept her cards close to her chest, telling ministers not to make representations to her until the election was over, she has in the past not favoured wholesale Cabinet reshuffles.

Another complication is the possibility that the Cabinet might include members from other parties beyond the Labour-Progressive Coalition. However, the word is that it will be a Labour Cabinet plus Jim Anderton, who will retain his development portfolios, while Michael Cullen will step up to Deputy Prime Minister. As Labour deputy leader and a pivotal figure in the Cabinet, Cullen has already been a quasi-Deputy Prime Minister.

Several portfolios do come free from the resignation of Sandra Lee, the defeat of Laila Harre and the likely demotion of Matt Robson because Anderton's Progressive Coalition secured only two MPs.

Of interest to business is conservation, held by Lee, which might go to present junior whip Chris Carter, expected to be one of three new promotions to the Cabinet when the caucus elections are held on August 13.

Lee will also shed local government, where she has taken a regulatory approach. George Hawkins might pick that up to add to internal affairs, a closely associated portfolio.

Similarly, Harre's departure will remove a constant pressure for tougher workplace regulation than Labour was prepared to promote. And if Peter Dunne, who opposed the workplace re-regulation, is in the loop, that should provide a moderating influence.

Harre has been doing the technical work in commerce: intellectual property, insolvency and so on. The best qualified candidate for this is David Cunliffe, who chaired the commerce select committee in the last Parliament.

Cunliffe is not slated to get a Cabinet post.

Anderton will shed customs and consumer affairs, which he took on when Phillida Bunkle lost her ministerial position last year.

Transport is one possible candidate for change. Mark Gosche has been slow to develop the transport strategy, only a draft of which was released during the election campaign.

But if that portfolio does change hands, it will not be to Harry Duynhoven, chair of the transport and industrial relations select committee in the last Parliament and an aspirant for the job, who insiders say is not likely to be promoted.

Otherwise, business-related portfolios are not expected to be shuffled. Trevor Mallard will keep education and remain one of the spending control ministers. Steve Maharey, who has gained in stature with Clark, is expected to remain with tertiary education and training.

Jim Sutton is ensconced in trade and agriculture, though there is talk that at some point agriculture might be handed to someone else. Environment Minister Marian Hobbs is said to have gained in standing with Clark after a muddled start and is therefore likely to retain her portfolios.

The three likely new Cabinet ministers are Carter, Ruth Dyson and John Tamihere. Outside Cabinet, current chief whip Rick Barker is expected to be promoted, to make way for David Benson-Pope to come in as chief whip, with Winnie Laban as junior whip.

Dyson might be a candidate for health in due course. But when Clark is ready to transfer that from Annette King, she is likely to turn to Pete Hodgson. He has some work to do yet on Kyoto, energy and fisheries. Even if he does take health, he is likely to retain science.

Tourism and State-owned Enterprises Minister Mark Burton is expected to move up to Speaker when Jonathan Hunt goes to London as High Commissioner. Hunt is not expecting that to be before 2005.

* ColinJames@synapsis.co.nz

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