KEY POINTS:
It was with the certainty of failure that I took the aged Nissan for an emissions test - to find out just how bad the noxious fumes belching from its exhaust were. As a 12-year-old vehicle it matches the average age of our 3.2 million strong fleet. Ponder that number for a moment: we sure do love our cars. That's about 700 vehicles per 1000 people, the third-highest ownership level in the world. For every person 15 years and over in this country, there's a vehicle.
But our love affair with cars is about to get kicked in the guts by the Government, which plans to restrict the type of vehicles that can be imported. In the process, some Japanese used vehicles will become more expensive to buy. The killjoy is the Land Transport Vehicle Exhaust Emissions Rule 2007, currently before Cabinet and due for a decision next week.
What the Government wants is to clean up our air - quoting research that estimates about 500 premature deaths a year are caused by vehicle pollution. But many are questioning whether this blunt instrument - banning the import of vehicles not built to certain exhaust emission standards - is going to do the job. Some, including the Ministry of Transport's commissioned researchers, say the ban could mean people hang on to their old vehicles for longer causing more, not less pollution. It sounds crazy.
At Anzac Automotive in Brown's Bay, mechanic Glen Baker attaches his equipment - a hose duct over the tailpipe, a temperature probe where the oil dipstick goes, and a black box hooked up to a computer - to the Nissan. Also watching proceedings is Dr Ian Brooks of Zero Emissions which provides the testing equipment here and at 16 other licensed stations around the country. He has some interesting statistics. Of the 700 or so vehicles which have undergone the voluntary test (at a cost of $32), 16 per cent of petrol and 7 per cent of diesel vehicles fail Zero e2, which is based on the Euro II emissions standard used in Europe. Brooks admits the sample is small, but he is steadily gathering more data which points to some fundamental flaws in the Government's thinking.
"The first thing is they underestimate the problem. They say about 10 per cent of vehicles would fail an emissions test. Our early research says about 20 per cent of vehicles would not be allowed on the road if they were in Europe." But alarming as that sounds, the good news is most failed vehicles can be fixed relatively easily - 50 per cent for less than $200 through a simple service or tune-up; and another 30 per cent by replacing an oxygen sensor for about $350. "For 80 per cent you can get the vehicle performing at a higher standard for under $350. With petrol prices at $1.73 a litre it doesn't take very long to recover that cost," says Brooks pointing out that improving a car's emissions also improves a car's fuel economy.
The problem vehicles, the remaining 20 per cent of those that fail, do so mainly because their engine is worn and their catalytic converter - the device that reduces the toxicity of emissions - is either not there or shot. Replacing a converter costs $700-$800 and for old vehicles in need of other repairs, it's often not a viable option.
It was the impact of such high cost repairs on lower socio-economic groups that caused the Government to balk at introducing emissions testing of the vehicle fleet when it considered the idea in 2005. "That's advice that I stand by at that particular time. We didn't think it was the best thing to do and Cabinet agreed," says Ministry of Transport environment and safety general manager David Crawford.
"I'm very firm that you need to have emissions standards on vehicles as they enter the fleet before we do these other things."
But there are many who believe the Ministry is handling vehicle emissions back to front - failing yet again to introduce emissions testing in the fleet and failing to develop incentive programmes for the scrapping of old vehicles. "They are refusing to deal with the fleet, which is where the problem is now," says chief executive of the independent motor vehicle dealers association (IMVDA) David Vinsen. "It doesn't matter how smart or clever or well-focused the new rule is, it's only going to deal with 5 per cent of vehicles in the fleet." He's referring to 125,000 used imports from Japan last year which had an average age of eight years. Under the new rule it's estimated the number imported could drop to 100,000 next year, affecting not just prices and availability, but also jobs - especially those who work in the compliance industry certifying and repairing used imports as they arrive here.
The Ministry can't say exactly what advice it's handed to Cabinet regarding the Emissions Rule - to do so would prejudice the decision making. But the proposal to phase in a number of Japanese petrol and diesel emission standards has been in consultation for about a year. It's also clear that lobbying by the IMVDA and other parties has had some effect on the timing of the rollout. We don't know for sure, but sources indicate that from 2008 petrol vehicles will be restricted to those that comply with the 1998 Japanese "GF" standard which is roughly equivalent to Euro II. From 2009 the standard will shift to the 2000/02 "GH" or "TA" standard equivalent to Euro III. That will stay in place until 2012 when the Japanese 2005 standard equivalent to Euro IV comes into play.
For diesel imports, the Ministry has remained more hard-line, bringing in the 2002/04 standard equivalent to Euro III from 2008 but, in a small concession, keeping it in place until 2012 when the 2005 (Euro V) standard will kick in.
While Vinsen is pleased about the more relaxed phase-in, he and IMVDA members are still incensed at the illogic of a proposal that drives up the cost of used vehicles and doesn't do anything to improve air quality. Venting that frustration in a last ditch effort to get Cabinet to change its mind, the IMVDA has launched a $300,000 publicity campaign. It features a Bromhead cartoon of Prime Minister Helen Clark and Transport Minister Judith Tizard as clowns driving a clapped out, smoky "crazy car".
The thrust of the IMVDA's argument is that if the Ministry was really serious about air quality it would be stricter about current warrant of fitness rules, such as the visual smoke test which to date has had little, or no, enforcement. It would also introduce emissions testing for all vehicles in the fleet, encourage the scrapping of older, unsafe, dirty vehicles and develop an end of vehicle life strategy. The Ministry says such ideas are part of its work programme next year.
Vinsen estimates 40 per cent of today's petrol and 90 per cent of diesel vehicle imports could be stopped by the new rule, pushing up used car prices by about $5000 and causing diesel trucks and vans to almost double.
Crawford disagrees. "We don't buy into to the IMVDA's argument that cars will become more pricey. You can buy a 7-year-old car from Japan now for a certain price and next year a 7-year-old for about the same price - so 7-year-old vehicles won't go up. What you won't be able to do is buy a 10-year-old vehicles from Japan."
It defies logic to see how restricting the supply of some vehicles won't have some effect on prices, but Crawford maintains buyers of 10-year-old vehicles can find plenty to choose from those that are already here. He does acknowledge however that diesel prices will increase. "We accept the secondhand diesel sector could be hit quite hard."
The Ministry argues the restrictions are necessary because of the level of invisible particulate (PM10) pollutants produced by older diesels. "The diesels coming in are particularly old - the 10 to 11-year-old small buses and trucks with no emissions control on them at all. Other jurisdictions have banned them and we don't want them either."
Once again there are differing views. "A lot of older diesels are not being brought in any more," says Auckland Regional Council's air quality scientist Dr Gerda Kuschel. "The older Japanese ones don't cope with the low sulphur in our fuel." From 2006 the sulphur content of diesel was reduced from 1000 parts per million to 50 ppm. Kuschel points out 2009 it will be cut again to 10 ppm allowing very clean Euro V compliant diesels which although they are available now can't be imported because our fuel isn't up to scratch.
But that's not to say the ARC isn't concerned about the quality of Auckland's air. ARC air quality manager Kevin Mahon says the latest research shows the number of premature deaths in the region due to poor air quality is now over 500 (over a year) and the reduced activity days due to pollution has grown from 750,000 to 1.1 million. It's estimated vehicle emissions are responsible for about 60 per cent of the deaths and restricted days.
Mahon says while emissions in the region have stabilised, the number of vehicles has grown, as has the number of people using them which is the main reason for the increases. Research has also highlighted increased risks from carbon monoxide and the much greater impact of emissions on children. High use vehicle corridors also seem spread their pollution effects to a width of between 300m and 500m - wider than previously thought.
At Pacey Trucks in Otahuhu, there's an impressive line-up of compactor trucks, vans, cranes, refrigerated trucks and buses, all immaculately turned out. They seem like new. "A lot of people say that," says chief executive Phil Pacey. "They ask if we have any used diesels - we tell them these are used vehicles." Pacey says none in his yard comply with the new standard and that when the rule change comes in, supply is going to be a huge problem. At three recent auctions in Japan where there were a total of 9675 vehicles on offer, Pacey found just 86 vehicles that would comply.
He points out a 1997, 1.5 tonne truck bought by a builder for $15,000. Under the new rule the equivalent truck will cost about $28,000, making trade-up an expensive option. "What will happen is at 500,000km that truck will get overhauled and do another 300,000km instead of getting dumped."
Pacey predicts a return to 1984 when the new vehicle distributors effectively controlled the market. He says buyers will be denied the superior workmanship, reliability, and low prices Japanese imports bring. "Pacey Trucks will go on like we used to in the old days and start repairing old stuff and just keeping it on the road. That workshop is going to be so busy."
Meanwhile at Anzac Automotive, Glen brings the revs up on my Nissan to complete the high idle part of the test. The computer takes read-outs on the exhaust pollutants - carbon monoxide and hydrocarbons. There's also a read-out for carbon dioxide - not a pollutant, but a by-product of burning fuel and a greenhouse gas that contributes to global warming. Then there are readings for oxygen and air to fuel ratio to show how well the engine is running.
Zero Emission's Brooks says the other interesting trend in his data is that the diesel fleet has out-performed the petrol fleet. Only 7 per cent failed outright as opposed to 16 per cent of petrol vehicles and of those that have passed, 85 per cent passed at the higher Euro IV level, whereas only 50 per cent of the petrol vehicles reached that standard.
"What matters is how the vehicle is performing right now - not what standard the manufacturers built it to, and not the age of the vehicle." He says a surprising number of vehicles two to three years old fail, and that a fleet of old rubbish trucks in Palmerston North recently passed the test.
"We don't agree with some of the assertions they've [Zero Emissions] made - they're quite different to what other jurisdictions say," says Crawford.
Fraser Colegrave of Covec, the company the Ministry commissioned to investigate the effects of the proposed rule says consumer reactions matter. "You can't just create a policy and assume that everybody will do what's best for the policy. You need to understand behavioural reactions and if you don't, you face the risk of unintended consequences and you could be worse off than doing nothing."
Covec modelled the effects of the rule change over a 10-year period and found a 1.1 per cent decrease in diesel particulate emissions and 1.4 per cent decrease in carbon dioxide. Carbon monoxide emissions on the other hand got worse by 3 per cent and there were small increases in hydrocarbons and nitrous oxide. The ambiguous and hardly heartening outcomes were similar to research findings by NZIER.
"There are some issues with the Covec and NZIER reports - I'm not sure I believe their modelling that says air quality would get worse," says Crawford. "If you choke off the front end too much and people hold on to their vehicles longer as a consequence, we accept the air quality might not improve as quickly as it otherwise would. Our policy recommendations take that into account."
Crawford argues the policy will be effective over the 16-18 years it takes for the vehicle fleet to turn over. "In the long run we will get improvement. It's not so fast in the first five to 10 years when fewer vehicles are complying, but over time more comply as older vehicles leave. The real benefits come in the second 10-year period." Hardly a rapid fix for air quality.
He uses the analogy of a polluted lake to explain. "It's common sense to cut off the source of pollution - to clean up the lake - and that's what we are trying to do here." But surely if you were doing that you would take out the major source of the pollution - the older vehicles?
"This rule isn't meant to be a whole of vehicle fleet strategy. That's the misinformation that the IMVDA have put out. This is one rule in a much wider work programme."
It's good news for me and the environment at Anzac Automotive when Baker hands over a certificate of my test result. My Nissan has passed - equivalent to the Japanese emission standard the Government plans to introduce next year. Baker puts a compliance sticker on my windscreen and discusses the results.
He reckons with an overdue oil change and tune, the car would almost certainly pass Zero e4 - equivalent to Euro IV and close to the Japanese standard the Government plans to introduce in 2012. If a 12-year-old car can pass to this level, you have to wonder about the wisdom of a blanket ban on importing cars that are younger.
