The sale process of Fletcher Energy could be undone by the turbo-charged performance of one of its investments.
Since listing in the United States at the beginning of this month, Californian-based Capstone Turbine Corporation, of which Fletcher owns 10.77 per cent, has been on fire.
Its shares have risen from an issue price of $US16 ($34.70) a share to $US63 in less than a month.
This has proven a gusher for Fletcher, which had the Capstone investment in its books at just $20 million before listing.
Today, that holding has a paper value of $1.14 billion, or 330c a Fletcher share.
To put it into perspective, that makes up nearly half of Fletcher's market capitalisation, which stands at $2.5 billion.
And at that price it constitutes a third of Fletcher's total assets.
But alas, with all good things there is a rub.
Fletcher Energy has to sit on its Capstone investment for six months, potentially a year.
Meanwhile, the company is in the throes of revealing all to perspective bidders as part of a process to ultimately unwind the Fletcher Challenge group of companies.
Fletcher Challenge is seeking bids for each of its remaining letter stocks - building, forests and energy.
The merchant banking firm Morgan Stanley is in the process of coordinating due diligence on behalf of Fletcher Energy.
Members of its team are in New Zealand showing interested parties around Fletcher Energy's books.
The problem comes as each buyer tries to put a value on the company.
Their main interest in Fletcher is likely to be its energy assets rather than Capstone.
The Capstone company makes turbines for hybrid electricity vehicles and small-scale stationary electricity generation.
The staggering performance of Capstone, which listed midflow of the Fletcher sales process, makes it a crucial part of any valuation.
By fully valuing Capstone the price for Fletcher Energy could easily be up to $11 a share, according to some brokers.
But given that the asset is locked up for six months it is unlikely that any bidder will get anywhere near that high price.
If offers do not reflect the full value of Fletcher, its directors will have little choice but to reject them.
This would result in Fletcher Energy's remaining a listed company.
However, with the dismantling of Fletcher Challenge, it would be unshackled from its current restrictive letter stock structure.
It would be surprising if Fletcher, or its advisers, were not looking at ways to crystallise the value of Capstone early so that the asset could be fully priced.
But time is running out.
Fletcher Challenge has given itself an August deadline for decisions to be made on its remaining assets.
Unless it moves quickly Fletcher Energy might be left on the shelf.
<i>Between the lines:</i> Spanner in the works for Fletcher
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