KEY POINTS:
For computer users who struggle with keyboard and mouse, there's good news coming. In the future we'll rely more on speech - and gestures - to get computers to do what we want them to do.
That's the prediction of Mark Billinghurst, who for the past six years has been running Canterbury University's Human Interface Technology Lab. We can see clues to how we'll do our computing a decade from now in technology like Microsoft's Surface Computing and Apple's iPhone, Billinghurst says.
Surface was launched by Microsoft in May last year in the form of a coffee table-sized horizontal screen that users interact with by placing items on it - an MP3 player, say, to open a music library - or by using a hand directly on the screen, to draw a picture in a graphics program, for example.
Not too much has been heard about Surface since its launch, but it is making an appearance during the US presidential election campaign on MSNBC, the cable news TV channel part-owned by Microsoft. Two programs - Electoral Map and Battleground States - will display historic voting results and the impact of various potential outcomes in key states.
At the other end of the size spectrum, Apple's iPhone has won plaudits for the ease of use of its touch screen. Its most striking feature is the ability to zoom in or out as the user spreads apart or brings together two fingers on the screen.
Billinghurst reckons computing's biggest change of the next 10 years will be in the shape devices take. He points out that since 2005, laptops have been selling in greater numbers than desktops.
"The next trend will be towards handheld and wearable devices, such as enhanced mobile phones, that will require very different interface technology - touch input, gesture recognition, camera input, etc."
In the HIT Lab's six years, the research emphasis has shifted from developing technology (Billinghurst invented a gadget, Magic Book, that creates a virtual pop-up book, working with children's author Gavin Bishop) to what he calls human-centred design.
"This means we try to understand a person's needs before researching technology to meet those needs."
An example is a project for HumanWare, formerly Christchurch company Pulse Data, which makes products for the blind and visually impaired.
HIT Lab workers spent months interviewing and observing elderly people to understand how they read and the types of features they would find useful in a low-vision reading device.
The result was a redesign of HumanWare's myReader product, which scans printed pages and displays them on screen. The user can adjust the text size and layout with a controller that is much simpler to manipulate than a keyboard or mouse.
Billinghurst rattles off a lengthy list of lab accomplishments over the past six years. It has developed what he says is the country's first immersive visualisation centre, which has three large stereo projection screens that allow the user to feel as though they're standing in the middle of their 3D graphical data.
Architects can use it to get a sense of what they've designed before they build it, and doctors can take a peek at what they're likely to find inside a patient before getting out the scalpel.
Billinghurst is even more satisfied with the careers the lab has shaped than the technology it has helped create.
"We have had over 150 people spend time at HIT Lab NZ and learn how to develop innovative computer interfaces. These people will be the ones developing the next generation of user interfaces."
He reckons he's been pretty close to the mark in anticipating technology trends.
"The main change of the past six years that will impact society is a huge rise in connectedness. Social networking tools, the web and almost ubiquitous mobile devices mean people can connect and communicate globally like never before.
"This is also a challenge for interface developers who have been good at developing interfaces for individuals, but now need to design for communities of thousands or millions."
Coming up with ways to help people distinguish useful information from the useless is also going to be important, he says. And the pace of change is going to continue to accelerate.
In the six years of the HIT Lab's existence, Moore's law - which is more a rule of thumb - means computer performance has doubled roughly three times. In the coming decade, the period Billinghurst is speculating about, performance can be expected to double another five times.
With so much grunt at hardware and software developers' disposal, it's not unreasonable to expect the speech and gestures we direct at computers in the future will be a little more polite than the curses still common today.
Free Hit
Canterbury University's HIT Lab is open to visitors on October 10 from 4pm to 6pm.
Go to www.hitlabnz.org for details.
Anthony Doesburg is an Auckland technology journalist.
