Anthony Doesburg: High-tech head count showing a lot of promise

Instead of filling in paper forms for next year's census, 30 per cent of us are likely to provide our details online.

That's Statistics New Zealand's estimate, based on results of a census dress rehearsal this month. Eight thousand households in five regions took part in the trial and, with the count mostly complete, more than 20 per cent of forms had been returned online.

"We're pleased with the response so far," said Carol Slappendel, the census general manager, with a fortnight still to go for submission of online forms.

It's a much better online completion rate than the 7 per cent at the 2006 census, and several factors should help nudge the number higher during when the real census happens next March.

One difference will be a promotional campaign pushing people to be counted online. For the dry run, the selected households in central and west Auckland, Gisborne, central Wellington and Mid-Canterbury had only the urgings of census field staff to get them to consider the online option.

Also, it wasn't compulsory for occupants of the chosen households to take part in the trial, as it is during the five-yearly census.

Another difference is that the proportion of people with good internet access is expected to be higher across the country as a whole than it was in the five trial areas. The sample was deliberately chosen to see what the pattern of online form completion would be in the less well-connected regions, Slappendel says.

"We're a bit cautious about extrapolating from the dress rehearsal to the census proper but we're pleased with the way it's going. It's certainly a significant increase on the 2005 dress rehearsal."

There are several benefits from shifting the process online. Half the census cost is for distributing and collecting forms, involving several thousand temporary field staff.

Once more than 35 per cent of forms are filed online, Statistics New Zealand will begin to make a saving on the collection cost.

Field staff will continue to walk the streets to distribute forms, however, since their role is also to make a dwelling count.

Data accuracy should also improve. Data entry from paper forms is largely automated, but the scanners that do the job struggle to decipher some handwriting.

Online form-filling will cut the number of questionnaires that need human checking, Slappendel says.

"Online information generally is a lot cleaner so that can help us speed up processing and reduce cost."

Processing might be faster but don't expect the data you provide online to be analysed and packaged up in a hurry.

It will be about eight months between population data collection in the next census, and the appearance of statistical results on the web.

Slappendel says users tell Statistics New Zealand that they're less interested in speed of delivery than accuracy of census data.

Shifting the process online is part of the bigger aim of increasing census participation. Despite it being compulsory, plenty of people besides the Wizard of New Zealand go out of their way to evade the national head-count, with about 70 being prosecuted in 2006.

Whether deliberately or not, Slappendel says 15 to 24-year-olds are particularly hard to reach, and it's hoped the online option will snare more of them.

"Anything that makes it easier for the respondent will be beneficial for the data as well, so one of the key things the online response does is give people another choice."

With the march of technology between now and the 2016 census, a still greater range of choices might be appropriate by then. But texters hoping for a version they can fill in on the fly will be disappointed - Slappendel says changes for 2016 are likely to be confined to the form design, which will have passed its use-by date.

"By then I think it will be looking a bit clunky and won't meet people's expectations of how things will be at that time."

The other side of the coin is giving electronic filers something in return.

Much census data eventually becomes freely available, but Slappendel acknowledges that people might be encouraged to file online if they immediately got some data back.

"It is something we would like to do, although for the 2011 census we won't be able to. But when, for example, people get a receipt [on filing an online census], we might send them a statistical profile of their area. We've been looking at what we could do to thank people while also showing them the value of the information."

Some of its uses were discussed at a forum in Wellington this week. The chosen examples were from the Ministry of Social Development and New Zealand Transport Agency.

But Slappendel says uses - setting electoral boundaries, determining funding for public services and working out school decile ratings, to mention a few - and users of census data are becoming increasingly diverse.

Still Counting

New Zealand's first general census was in 1851. Only Europeans were counted, and the population tally was 26,707.