In last Week’s 1News Verian poll National was on 37%.
In the preferred Prime Minister poll Luxon was on 25% down three percentage points on the last poll. At least a third of National supporters do not rate him as PM.
The prestige of being the nation’s leader usually ensures the incumbent is the voters’ preferred Prime Minister. Helen Clark, as Leader of the Opposition, twice polled 2%. Once she was Prime Minister, Clark dominated the polls.
Replacing an elected Prime Minister is electoral suicide. Rolling Jim Bolger did not end well.
For the coalition to be sure of re-election the Prime Minister’s rating must improve.
To fix something you first need to know what the problem is.
Voters do not hate Christopher Luxon. He is a family man with a wonderful CV. He lives his values.
The attacks on Luxon are silly. We have had richer Prime Ministers. He has earned his wealth.
It is my understanding that every Prime Minister has claimed their allowances.
Other MPs own houses. Willie Jackson has previously declared jointly owning two family homes and an apartment in Wellington.
No one pays capital gains taxes so why should Luxon?
Luxon is hard-working and passionate about improving our nation.
What is there to dislike?
The simplest explanation is that the country is in its longest post World War II recession. The Prime Minister is always responsible. As the Government turns the economy around his ratings should rise.
It might be that simple, but it does not explain why his fellow chief executives in the mood of the boardroom rated other ministers more highly.
Luxon never had a honeymoon but neither did his party.
He does not have Sir John Key’s gift for explaining but Key was amazing.
No previous poll asked whether the Prime Minister was in touch. This question is creating an opinion rather than discovering our opinion.
All Prime Ministers are out of touch. It is not because they do not know what is happening but because they really do know. Issues we think are easy Prime Ministers know to be complex.
There is another reason for Luxon’s low polling - inexperience. He is not a politician.
No life experience can prepare you for spending hours every day in the chamber with your political enemies, to working in a hostile environment where everything you say will be twisted and used against you.
It takes at least six years to master the skills needed to be an MP.
Luxon has only been in Parliament for five years. He will be a much better campaigner in the next election.
Perceptions are important. A politically more experienced Luxon would have anticipated the politics of envy.
Candidates learn to relate to voters by door knocking. Dame Jacinda Ardern ran twice and lost in Auckland Central before she won Mt Albert.
It is not possible to door knock when you are PM. The Prime Minister’s 24/7 security would freak out the neighbourhood.
Luxon needs to observe a focus group of swing voters talking politics. It will be an eye-opener. Many voters do not know we have a three-party Government.
Some voters do not know he is Prime Minister. Luxon will hear how the average swing voter discusses politics.
But here is my advice. Turn his weakness into his strength.
Dancing on TikTok and glad-handing foreign leaders is not working.
Say “I am not a politician; I am a businessman. I have come into politics to fix the country.”
Luxon must sell his achievements. He should claim that only someone with his CEO experience could have created a stable government out of a six-party MMP Parliament.
It has the advantage of being true. Before Luxon was leader, the National caucus was dysfunctional. He leads a three-party coalition that is more stable and achieving more than Labour’s one-party Government.
Luxon’s innovation of 90-day action plans is working.
The secret of leadership is to lead. As a businessman, Luxon knows the only way to balance the books is to end corporate welfare. The taxpayer subsidising Hollywood movies makes no sense.
Now the dark side.
While he can sell himself as a businessman, not a politician, it still is politics. Being Prime Minister is a tough job. Nice guy Prime Ministers are popular, think of Lange and Ardern, but they do not last. Long-serving Prime Ministers are necessarily ruthless. Key was the smiling assassin. Clark was tough.
No one fears Luxon.
If Luxon was as ruthless to those who are incompetent or worse, acting in bad faith, as he is to his own MPs who make mistakes, he would command respect.
Here is the real recipe. Good policy successfully implemented is the best politics.
Respect and results, not popularity, drives the preferred Prime Minister poll.
