Gain in most regions: growth survey

By Brian Fallow

WELLINGTON - Most of the country enjoyed better times in the June quarter according to the National Bank's survey of regional economic trends.

Ten of the 14 regions recorded a rise in economic activity, and nine have done so for the past four quarters. Regional growth has not been so widespread since 1994.

The National Bank measures regional growth by a composite index reflecting 31 indicators including business and consumer confidence, retail sales, vehicle registrations, exports, unemployment and real estate turnover.

In all but five regions - Gisborne, Taranaki, Manawatu, Nelson-Marlborough and Southland - the rate of growth slowed in the June quarter from what were generally very strong rates in March.

That is consistent with economists' forecasts that gross domestic product growth for the June quarter will come in around 0.5 per cent, after hitting 0.7 per cent in March and 0.9 per cent in December 1998, as catch-up spending following last year's recession wanes.

On an annual basis, however, every region has posted gains.

Growth in Auckland has outstripped the national average for the past two quarters, with consumer confidence, retail sales and dwelling approvals outperforming the country as a whole.

Auckland's corporate sector, however, was still playing a wait-and-see game, said National Bank economist Steve Edwards.

Waikato's economy lost ground. Better farm sales and employment figures were not enough to offset weaker consumer confidence, commercial building and retail sales.

In Northland, house and car sales were sluggish and business confidence weak. But retail sales rose faster than the national average.

The Bay of Plenty trod water after two strong quarters. Retail sales, employment, car registrations and dwelling approvals all outperformed the national economy, but commercial sector indicators were weak.