In my view, she would raise her diminished standing with New Zealanders if she began 2023 by leading a conversation on co-governance as advocated by former Prime Minister Jim Bolger and former Justice Minister Sir Douglas Graham.
It’s not as if the Prime Minister lacks the skills to do this.
She did after all displayed strong and empathetic leadership following the Christchurch mosques terrorist attack and has built a stellar reputation for leadership on the international stage.
Trusting New Zealanders by sharing with them her own thinking on the optimal extent of co-governance between Māori and central and local Government, and their institutions, has so far eluded her, which is quite extraordinary given her persuasive communication skills.
Indeed, it is quite extraordinary that Cabinet instead appears to have opted to pause work on an implementation plan for the He Puapua reforms until after the next election on the recommendation of Māori Development Minister Willie Jackson.
The He Puapua plan is said to be a roadmap as to how New Zealand should meet its commitments made under the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous People. An initial report was commissioned by Labour in 2019 but was kept from its coalition partner New Zealand First and not shared before the 2020 election. It was ultimately released in 2021.
Essentially it is about providing a roadmap to achieve “Vision 2040″, which is the realisation of the declaration by 2040 which is also the bicentenary of the signing of te Tiriti o Waitangi.
Various recommendations have been made: A Māori Senate, Māori court system and more. A suggestion to create a new Māori health agency has already been adopted.
The upshot is that it’s about greater self-determination by Māori and it is contested by those who see the report’s recommendations as a recipe for Māori separatism.
Jackson is now sitting on some preliminary feedback from Māori interests and a governance group. The draft plan was supposed to be put out for public consultation by now – but this has not been finalised and will not now go out (publicly at least) until after the next election, at which point New Zealanders will get an opportunity for feedback.
It seems pretty fundamental that if major changes to New Zealand’s governance structure are contemplated, then this roadmap – or plan – is shared more broadly than Jackson’s governance group.
Pausing the reforms will not stop them from becoming a political football or indeed being misrepresented.
It may be more likely that they will become a bargaining chip if Labour needs for instance to form a coalition with the Māori Party after the election.
On the international front, Ardern continues to bring a strong game.
This year she led New Zealand’s “reopening” to the world after two years of tight border controls that for all intents and purposes closed off much of the outside world to protect citizens from the Covid virus.
She has been a powerful presence on the world stage highlighting the dangers of disinformation, talking up democracy, treading a fine diplomatic line between the United States and China, taking part in Nato discussions on Ukraine, leading business missions, cementing trade deals and negotiating a stronger relationship with incoming Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. This relationship will lead to better conditions for New Zealanders living in that country after the two PMs meet this coming year to celebrate the 40th anniversary of the Closer Economic Relations agreement.
There is more besides.
Her leadership of the Christchurch Call, where she has forged a consensus alongside French President Emmanuel Macron to try to eliminate extremist content online through greater use of algorithmic controls is a case in point.
The upshot is there is much to admire over the way Ardern conducts herself in the international arena to New Zealand’s advantage offshore.
She is more than capable of turning that leadership lens back onto New Zealand.
Other domestic areas crying out for her leadership include the rampant inequality which has become more stark during the five years she has led New Zealand (although Covid has exacerbated this).
Then there are the issues where business has an interest: co-governance – where the Government has shoehorned an extraordinary level of Māori oversight and controls into the structure of the Three Waters reforms, rather than test the case for Māori ownership of New Zealand water separately along with expanding claims to natural resources.
There is also the somewhat bumbling approach to centralisation where transition costs have snowballed with little to show for it so far.
Commentators have claimed that by the end of 2022 Ardern was ready to junk the PM’s role. They opined she couldn’t cope with her declining political popularity and would be “gone by Christmas” They have miscued.
She’s dialled back her presence on social media. Her most recent posting on Instagram and Facebook was headlined: “Ardern, Seymour join forces for pricks everywhere” – pointing to the $100,000 they had jointly raised for the Prostate Cancer Foundation by memorializing then auctioning off her unparliamentary criticism of the Act leader as “such an arrogant prick”.
She will likely surface today to congratulate those New Zealanders who will receive New Year honours and then take more time out so she is match-fit for a challenging 2023.
She has displayed genuine and noteworthy leadership offshore.
The challenge she faces is how to draw on that stellar performance and inject more leadership on controversial issues in the domestic pond.
